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Next NFL QB Benched Odds
| Quarterback | Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | Miami Dolphins | +180 | 35.7% |
| Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers | +450 | 18.2% |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | +700 | 12.5% |
| Kyler Murray | Minnesota Vikings | +900 | 10.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Arizona Cardinals | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Tyler Shough | New Orleans Saints | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Geno Smith | New York Jets | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Kirk Cousins | Las Vegas Raiders | +3000 | 3.2% |
Where Everybody Actually Stands
Deshaun Watson. Two in a row now. He beat Tampa Bay in Week 2, then came back late to beat Carolina 21-18 in Week 3, his best stretch as a Brown by a mile. Cleveland’s not touching this job right now, whatever the preseason number said.
Tua Tagovailoa. Here’s the twist: he’s healthy now, cleared the injury report, and still didn’t get the job back. Atlanta named Penix Jr. the starter for Week 3 anyway and Tua sat as QB2 for a blowout win. He’s arguably the most “benched” guy on this whole list, and he never even lost a start to do it — he just lost the competition.
Cooper Rush. Update on the guy who wasn’t even on the original board: his audition is officially over. Michael Penix Jr. took the Week 3 start against Green Bay and went off — 18 of 25 for 256 yards and a touchdown in a 35-14 win, Atlanta’s first of the year. Rush is back to holding a clipboard, and honestly he probably should’ve been off this list weeks ago.
Geno Smith. Numbers keep climbing — 321 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 — and the Jets still lost, this time 31-24 to Detroit. Nobody’s blaming Geno for any of this. Not a benching conversation, just a bad team around a guy playing well.
Kirk Cousins. 3-0. Three touchdowns again in a comeback win over New Orleans after Vegas trailed by 11 in the second half. This is about as far from the hot seat as a name on this board can get.
Jacoby Brissett. Bounced back nicely from that Seattle disaster — 280 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. Arizona’s still figuring out what it has at quarterback game to game, but this wasn’t a week that moves him closer to the bench.
Kyler Murray. Back from concussion protocol and the Vikings are 3-0, but Murray himself was underwhelming in the win — 15 of 29 for 168 yards with a touchdown and a pick against Tampa Bay. Carson Wentz looked good filling in the last two weeks, so as long as Minnesota keeps winning big on defense and special teams instead of Murray’s arm, this is worth watching.
Malik Willis. This is the one that’s actually moving. Miami’s 0-3 after a 24-10 loss to Kansas City, and Willis still hasn’t thrown for 220 yards or produced a multi-touchdown game in three tries — 20 of 36 for 210 yards, no touchdowns, an interception, and a lost fumble in Week 3. Quinn Ewers is sitting right there. If this front office pulls the trigger on anyone in the next couple weeks, it’s probably here.
Bryce Young. Tougher week. 26 of 46 for 291 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in a 21-18 loss to Cleveland, and Carolina’s line let him get pressured on something like two-thirds of his drop-backs. Nobody’s benching him — he’s still playing better than he has in years — but the offensive line issues are becoming their own story.
Tyler Shough. Arguably his best game yet — four touchdown passes in Week 3 — and New Orleans still lost 35-27 to Las Vegas on late turnovers. Nowhere near the hot seat, just a young quarterback outplaying a bad roster around him.
So Where’s This Headed
Three weeks in, my read: this is Malik Willis’s board to lose now. Miami’s 0-3, he still hasn’t had a real breakout game, and Quinn Ewers isn’t going anywhere. Watson and Brissett both bought themselves real runway with good weeks, and Penix Jr. looks like he solved Atlanta’s whole situation in one game. Murray’s fine for now, just a name to keep filed away if Minnesota’s offense stays this quiet.
Don’t expect an actual benching announcement soon regardless. Last year the first two didn’t happen until Week 4 and Week 5. Still, three weeks have already given us Cooper Rush getting pulled mid-game, Tua losing a job he never even got to defend on the field, a promising rookie’s season ending on a knee injury, and now Miami looking like the first team that might actually pull the plug — that’s a lot more movement than a preseason odds sheet ever let on.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.