Florida State finally pulled the plug. Mike Norvell is out after seven seasons, a 41-39 record and a 3-5 start that bottomed out with a 36-24 home loss to Clemson on Saturday.
The school fired him the next day. It’s eating a buyout of roughly $50 million to do it.
That’s a lot of money to admit a mistake. FSU is 10-22 since the start of 2024, so they clearly felt they had to.
Now the fun part. Who gets the job? We built our own board.
Next Florida State Coach Odds
| Coach | Current Job | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Dickert | Wake Forest HC | +250 | 28.6% |
| Jimbo Fisher | Former FSU HC | +450 | 18.2% |
| Manny Diaz | Duke HC | +600 | 14.3% |
| Glenn Schumann | Georgia DC | +900 | 10.0% |
| Kenny Dillingham | Arizona State HC | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Eli Drinkwitz | Missouri HC | +1200 | 7.7% |
| James Franklin | Virginia Tech HC | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Jason Eck | New Mexico HC | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Rhett Lashlee | SMU HC | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Blake Baker | LSU DC | +3000 | 3.2% |
Odds via Mr. Gamble’s own handicapping as of Nov. 5, 2026. Not a sportsbook market.
Jake Dickert, +250
Dickert is the guy we keep coming back to.
Wake Forest is 7-1 after hammering Virginia 51-7 last week. He’s 15-5 in two years there. Before that, he turned things around at Washington State.
He wins with less. That’s the whole pitch. FSU has more money, more NIL juice and way better recruiting ground than Winston-Salem.
The knock is fit. He’s from Wisconsin with no real Florida ties, and FSU’s president keeps saying fit matters. But Florida just hired Jon Sumrall with no Florida background either. It’s not a dealbreaker.
Jimbo Fisher, +450
The fans want him back. There were “bring back Jimbo” signs behind him when ACC Huddle came to campus in September.
And he wants it. Fisher has reportedly been lobbying behind the scenes, talking to donors about NIL and the transfer portal.
The résumé is easy. He went 83-23 in Tallahassee, won the 2013 national title and stacked three straight ACC titles.
He’s also cheap, relatively speaking. He’s still collecting his Texas A&M buyout, and that matters for a school that just wrote a $50 million check.
So why isn’t he the favorite? His A&M run was 45-25 with no playoff trip and no SEC title game. And nobody knows if FSU’s leadership actually wants a reunion.
Kalshi traders like him, for what it’s worth. He has the highest buy price in a pretty thin market there.
Manny Diaz, +600
On paper, he’s perfect. FSU grad. Started as a GA under Bobby Bowden. Won the ACC at Duke last year, and Duke is 6-2 right now.
Then Monday happened. Diaz told reporters he’s “really, really happy” at Duke. He also signed an extension through 2031 back in April.
Coaches say that stuff all the time, sure. We still moved him down.
There’s also the Miami problem. He got fired there after going 21-15. With the Canes rolling again, that’s an awkward look for FSU fans.
Glenn Schumann, +900
This is the wild card.
Schumann runs Georgia’s defense and was co-DC on the 2021 and 2022 title teams. He came up under Saban at Alabama. He’s from Valdosta, and his grandfather coached at FSU.
He’s never been a head coach, though. That’s a big swing for a school that just paid $50 million to undo its last hire.
Kenny Dillingham, +1000
Dillingham ran FSU’s offense in 2020 and 2021, so he knows the building. He won a Big 12 title at Arizona State.
But the Sun Devils are 4-4 this year. He’s also close with Norvell. Taking your old boss’s job right after he gets fired is a little weird.
The Rest of the Board
Eli Drinkwitz (+1200) is 64-32 as an FBS head coach and has Missouri at 6-2. He’s got ACC experience from NC State. His record against ranked teams is the knock. He had to address the FSU chatter this week, so his name is definitely out there.
James Franklin (+1400) is the fun one. Barstool’s Brandon Walker predicted Franklin bolts Virginia Tech after one season. The Hokies are 6-2. Then again, Franklin went 4-21 against top-10 teams at Penn State.
Jason Eck (+2000) is 42-18 as a head coach, and New Mexico is 7-1 with the top scoring defense in the country. He’s never coached in the Power 4.
Rhett Lashlee (+2500) took SMU to the playoff. He also just got extended, and SMU has plenty of money. Tough to pry loose.
LSU DC Blake Baker (+3000) has strong South Florida recruiting ties and zero head coaching experience.
Brian Kelly, Deion Sanders and Dan Mullen have all been floated too. We’d need to see real smoke first.
Why This Search Is Weird
FSU is hiring an athletic director at the same time. It fired Michael Alford in September, and the same search firm is running both searches. President Richard McCullough says he makes the final call.
Money is the other storyline. FSU’s roster budget reportedly sits around $23 million to $30 million, which is middle of the pack for a program like this. The next coach needs donors to open their wallets again.
That’s a big part of why Fisher keeps hanging around.
When Will We Know?
Rick Stockstill has the team for the last four games, starting Saturday at Boston College.
The real deadline is January, when the transfer portal opens. FSU needs a coach in place well before then to hold this roster together.
If it’s a sitting coach like Dickert, figure late November or early December, once Wake’s season wraps. If it’s Fisher, it could happen a lot faster. He’s the only top name who could sign tomorrow.
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Odds and implied probabilities reflect our own handicapping for informational and entertainment purposes only, not a licensed sportsbook market. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
