Well, it’s finally here. Tarik Skubal is a free agent, and pretty much every team with real money is about to get a call from Scott Boras (if they haven’t already).
The Dodgers rented him for the last two months after the deadline deal. Then the Brewers beat the Rays in the World Series and the clock started. L.A. doesn’t get any kind of hometown discount out of that, though. He’s a Boras guy, so he’s going to the open market. That’s just how it works.
So where does he end up? Here’s how we’d set it.
Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +120 | 45.5% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +150 | 40.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | +700 | 12.5% |
| San Diego Padres | +1000 | 9.1% |
| New York Yankees | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Detroit Tigers | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Los Angeles Angels | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Chicago White Sox | +3000 | 3.2% |
Odds via Mr. Gamble’s own handicapping as of Nov. 6, 2026. Not a sportsbook market.
How We Got Here
Short version: Detroit never offered him anything his camp took seriously. So instead of losing him for nothing, the Tigers shipped him to L.A. on Aug. 2 for outfielder Zyhir Hope and pitchers River Ryan and Brady Smith.
The Dodgers wanted the three-peat. Didn’t happen. Milwaukee swept them in the NLCS, and now L.A. is just one more bidder.
New York Mets, +120
If you’re a Mets fan, you’ve probably been waiting for this one since the deadline.
They need an ace badly, and Skubal is pretty much the only one out there. He’s 29, too. That almost never happens with a pitcher this good, because teams usually lock these guys up way before they get to free agency.
We’ve got the Mets slightly ahead, and the early betting market kind of agrees. If this turns into a straight money fight, we’re not betting against Steve Cohen.
Los Angeles Dodgers, +150
Yeah, you could make the case L.A. should be No. 1. They had him for two months, they know the arm, and at this point they sign the top free agent pretty much every winter.
But they’ve already got Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani in the rotation. There’s also some weirdness around the ownership situation with Mark Walter right now, and a few insiders ESPN talked to weren’t totally sold on L.A. because of it.
Would we be surprised if they just pay him anyway? Not really. It’s the Dodgers.
Chicago Cubs, +700
The Cubs are the sneaky one. They gave Alex Bregman $175 million over five years, so they’re clearly not scared to spend anymore. Skubal’s going to cost about double that. But a rotation with him at the top would change everything for them.
San Diego Padres, +1000
San Diego just watched a bunch of its pitchers hit free agency (Adrian Morejon’s one of them), and they’ve never been the type to sit quietly in the offseason. MLB.com called them a sleeper. We kind of buy it.
The Rest of the Board
Yankees at +1200. They haven’t really been tied to him yet, but it’s the Yankees, so you never fully rule them out.
Toronto (+1600) keeps showing up on landing-spot lists. They’ve gone after big free agents before and come up empty, though, so we’ll believe it when we see it.
Tigers at +2000 is mostly for the fans. They could’ve paid him. They traded him instead.
Then there’s the Angels (+2500) and White Sox (+3000). The Angels lost 100 games this year. Giving one pitcher $350 million right now would be… a choice.
What’s It Going to Cost?
A ton. Yamamoto’s $325 million deal is the record for a pitcher, and Boras is reportedly shooting right for it. ESPN projects eight years and $355 million, roughly $44.6 million a year, and some people think he clears $400 million.
Honestly, he’s worth it. Two Cy Youngs, plus a 2.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this year. Not a lot to argue with.
When Will We Know?
Could be quick. The CBA runs out Dec. 1, and the owners want a salary cap the union has pretty much said isn’t happening. If that ends in a lockout, nobody signs anybody until it’s sorted out.
So both sides have a reason to move fast. Our guess is he’s signed before Dec. 1. If not, buckle up, because this could take a while.
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Odds and implied probabilities reflect our own handicapping for informational and entertainment purposes only, not a licensed sportsbook market. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
