NFL Week 1 Picks 2026: Predictions Against the Spread for All 16 Games

Football’s back. Wednesday night in Seattle kicks off a Week 1 slate that also sends two teams to Melbourne for the league’s first regular-season game on Australian soil. Below are spread picks for all 16 games, lines via BetMGM as of Sept. 8, these will move some before kickoff, so double check before you bet.

At a Glance

Matchup	Spread	Pick
Patriots at Seahawks	SEA -3.5	Seahawks -3.5
49ers vs. Rams (Melbourne)	LAR -3.5	Rams -3.5
Bears at Panthers	CHI -2.5	Bears -2.5
Ravens at Colts	IND +3.5	Colts +3.5
Falcons at Steelers	PIT -3	Steelers -3
Buccaneers at Bengals	TB +3.5	Buccaneers +3.5
Browns at Jaguars	JAX -7.5	Jaguars -7.5
Jets at Titans	NYJ +1.5	Jets +1.5
Saints at Lions	DET -7	Lions -7
Bills at Texans	BUF -1	Bills -1
Cardinals at Chargers	LAC -10.5	Cardinals +10.5
Packers at Vikings	GB +1.5	Packers +1.5
Dolphins at Raiders	MIA +3.5	Dolphins +3.5
Commanders at Eagles	PHI -5.5	Eagles -5.5
Cowboys at Giants	DAL -3	Cowboys -3
Broncos at Chiefs	DEN +2.5	Broncos +2.5

Wednesday, Sept. 9

Patriots at Seahawks — Seahawks -3.5

Same two teams that closed last season open this one, with Seattle hosting a Super Bowl LX rematch at Lumen Field. The Seahawks led the league in scoring defense last year and get Sam Darnold back as the clear starter with no quarterback controversy hanging over camp. New England’s 2025 breakout came against what was, by a wide margin, the softest schedule in football — nobody really knows yet if Drake Maye is a top-tier quarterback or a product of circumstance. He gets an early answer against the team that already beat him with a ring on the line. I’ll side with the champs at home, even giving the field goal and a hook.

Thursday, Sept. 10 (Melbourne)

49ers vs. Rams — Rams -3.5

Weird kickoff time (10:35 a.m. local), weirder setting, but the football part of this is fairly straightforward: the Rams have more continuity on both lines of scrimmage, and San Francisco has spent two straight offseasons patching together a receiver room after injuries gutted it. If you want a total bet, this one’s trickier with the travel and time-zone flip — but on the spread, I’d rather have the more finished roster.

Sunday, Sept. 13

Bears at Panthers — Bears -2.5

Chicago being favored on the road tells you more about Carolina’s rebuild than anything about the Bears having things figured out. Take the road number in what should be an ugly, mistake-filled opener for both sides.

Ravens at Colts — Colts +3.5

Baltimore’s the better roster on paper — that’s not really in dispute. But John Harbaugh’s teams have a real history of slow Septembers, and Indianapolis is at home with a defense that was playing its best ball of the year by the time 2025 wrapped up. A field goal and a bit more feels like fair value on the home dog.

Falcons at Steelers — Steelers -3

Mike Tomlin doesn’t have a losing season on his résumé, and Pittsburgh’s won a bunch of home openers in a row now. Atlanta’s offensive line was rebuilt this offseason and hasn’t proven anything on the road yet. Give the hook.

Buccaneers at Bengals — Buccaneers +3.5

Highest total on the board this week, and there’s a reason: Cincinnati’s defense has been the shakiest part of the roster in pretty much every year Joe Burrow has started. Tampa’s offense travels fine. I like the points in what has shootout written all over it.

Browns at Jaguars — Jaguars -7.5

Biggest number involving two AFC teams this week, and it’s not close between these two rosters. Jacksonville’s deeper across the board, and Cleveland is still an open question at quarterback. Lay it.

Jets at Titans — Jets +1.5

Basically a coin flip between two teams still figuring themselves out. Take the point and a half, expect it to come down to the last drive.

Saints at Lions — Lions -7

Detroit’s one of the more talented rosters in the conference and gets this one at home off a strong offseason. New Orleans is mid-transition at multiple spots. Give the touchdown.

Bills at Texans — Bills -1

This is one of two games on the board that’s basically a genuine toss-up — the market actually flipped on this number over the summer, which tells you the books aren’t sure either. I lean Buffalo on the road, but treat this one as appointment viewing more than a strong lean.

Cardinals at Chargers — Cardinals +10.5

The biggest spread of the week, by a lot. Double-digit road favorites in Week 1, before anyone’s timing is really sharp, have a way of letting backdoor covers happen. I’m not laying double digits with anybody in an opener — take the points with Arizona.

Packers at Vikings — Packers +1.5

The other true coin-flip game this week. This number opened with Green Bay favored at home over the summer before it flipped to Minnesota, which is worth paying attention to. I’ll still take the points on the road dog in a division game that usually gets decided in the fourth quarter anyway.

Dolphins at Raiders — Dolphins +3.5

Miami’s rested, and Las Vegas is still finding its footing under new leadership. Take the points on the road.

Commanders at Eagles — Eagles -5.5

Philly’s front is once again one of the nastiest in football, and Washington’s breaking in a handful of new pieces around Jayden Daniels. Lay it at home.

Cowboys at Giants — Cowboys -3

Dallas gets the primetime slot and, frankly, the better quarterback in this matchup, against a Giants team that’s still sorting out its offensive identity. Lay the field goal on the road.

Monday, Sept. 14

Broncos at Chiefs — Broncos +2.5

The MNF closer is also the biggest early statement game of the week. Denver won the AFC West at 14-3 last year and has now beaten Kansas City three straight times, including a 20-13 win on Christmas Day against a shorthanded Chiefs offense. The whole game hinges on where Patrick Mahomes is physically coming off a torn ACL and LCL — if he’s limited or sits, Denver probably just wins outright. Even at full health, I’ll take the points from the team that owns the recent head-to-head.

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Odds via BetMGM as of Sept. 6, 2026, and subject to change before kickoff. This content is for informational purposes only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.