Next Gen Stats had the Rams at a 3.2% win probability in Philadelphia on Sunday. Down 10, under eight minutes to go, on the road. They won 24-20 anyway, and now they’re sitting alone atop the Super Bowl board again at +650.
Buffalo was tied with them a week ago. Then the Bills lost at home to the Patriots (again) and slid to +750.
Oh, and Super Bowl LXI is at SoFi on Feb. 14. The Rams play their home games there. Just saying.
Here’s the full board heading into Week 5.
Super Bowl LXI Odds After Week 4
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +650 | 13.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | +750 | 11.8% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +850 | 10.5% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +850 | 10.5% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +900 | 10.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +950 | 9.5% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Chicago Bears | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1900 | 5.0% |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +2400 | 4.0% |
| Detroit Lions | +2400 | 4.0% |
| New England Patriots | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2700 | 3.6% |
| Houston Texans | +4500 | 2.2% |
| Atlanta Falcons | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +10000 | 1.0% |
DraftKings odds as of Oct. 6.
Los Angeles Rams, +650
I’ll be honest, I don’t totally get this one.
Yeah, the comeback was great. Kyren Williams scored the go-ahead touchdown, the Rams outgained Philly 415-172, and the Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down, which is hard to do even on purpose. Puka Nacua was back after missing two games and went for 9 catches and 125 yards.
But this is a 2-2 team. They got smoked in Australia in Week 1. They blew a 16-0 lead to Denver the week after that. Stafford threw two picks Sunday. Myles Garrett is still out after knee surgery.
The books clearly trust the roster when it’s healthy. I’d just rather not lay favorite money on a team that’s been this up and down through a month.
Buffalo Bills, +750
Patriots 29, Bills 26. In Buffalo. For the second year in a row.
Drake Maye drove them 73 yards for a late touchdown and Josh Allen threw a pick to end it. Rough way to lose your first game.
Buffalo’s still 3-1 and still leads the division though, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. If you were already on the Bills, you’re getting a slightly better number now than you were last week.
San Francisco 49ers, +850
If I’m picking one team in this top group, it’s probably the Niners.
They’re 4-0. They just beat Denver 24-14, and Brock Purdy didn’t get sacked once against a defense that gets after people. And somehow they’re a longer price than a Rams team they’re two games ahead of in the division.
Health is the catch, like it always is with San Francisco. Mike Evans got hurt in Week 3 and Nick Bosa’s been dinged up. Last year the injuries piled up on them, and that’s the risk you’re taking.
Baltimore Ravens, +850
Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-18 and moved to 3-1, but Lamar Jackson hurt his left ankle and didn’t come back after halftime. The offense didn’t score another point without him.
No timeline as of Monday. They’re at Atlanta this week.
I’d hold off here until there’s real news on the ankle. With Lamar this number’s fine, without him it’s not.
Kansas City Chiefs, +900
4-0 again, because of course they are. Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards in a 30-27 win in Vegas.
Tyquan Thornton reportedly dislocated his ankle in that game, though, and could be out 12 to 16 weeks. That’s a real hit to a receiver group that wasn’t deep to begin with.
KC’s on bye this week, so don’t expect much movement on this one.
Seattle Seahawks, +950
The champs beat the Chargers 30-23 and sit at 3-1. They host San Francisco on Sunday as 3-point favorites, and whoever wins that game is going to move on this board.
Jacksonville Jaguars, +1500
Jags went into Cincinnati and won 22-17. They’re 3-1 and up a game on the Colts.
Trevor Lawrence didn’t turn it over, and this is the same defense that kicked the crap out of New England two weeks ago. I’ve liked them as an AFC sleeper all year, but +1500 isn’t really sleeper money anymore.
Chicago Bears, +1800
Okay, this is the fun one.
The Bears are 3-1 and they’ve won the last two without Caleb Williams. Case Keenum beat the Eagles 27-7. Then Tyson Bagent beat the Jets 23-12, throwing for 268, while Kyle Monangai ran it 30 times for 146 yards and two TDs. Chicago ran 89 plays. The Jets ran 32. That’s not luck.
Williams has a Grade 2 hamstring strain and isn’t practicing this week. Ben Johnson said Week 6 against Atlanta is the earliest he’d be back. Bagent gets Green Bay this Sunday, and the Bears are actually favored at Lambeau.
Think about where this number goes if they’re 4-1 or 5-1 when Caleb comes back. That’s the bet. I like it as a small futures play.
The Rest of the Board
Atlanta went into the Superdome Monday night and won 45-24. Bijan had 145 yards and two scores on just 19 carries, Brian Robinson Jr. found the end zone three times, and Penix was 15-of-20 for 223 and a TD. Their odds went from +12000 to +8000 overnight.
Since Penix got back it’s honestly been a different team. They scored 16 points total in the first two weeks, then 80 the last two.
Minnesota’s 4-0 and still sitting out at +2200. Not sure why nobody’s talking about them.
Some teams are going the other way. Philly’s dropped from +1500 to +2400 after two straight losses. The Chargers are 0-4 for the first time since 2017, they’ve lost seven straight dating back to last season, and they went from +1600 preseason to +10000. Houston’s 0-4 too after a 34-30 loss to Dallas, now +4500.
Green Bay also barely got past a Tampa team starting an undrafted rookie at QB. The Packers started this season among the favorites. That’s not where they are now.
What to Watch in Week 5
Niners at Seahawks Sunday is the game for this market. Lamar’s ankle is the biggest injury question. And if Chicago wins at Lambeau with Bagent, that +1800 probably won’t be there next week.
Six teams are at +950 or shorter. In October that means nobody’s really separated yet, so shop around for your number before you bet.
Odds and implied probabilities via DraftKings as of Oct. 6, 2026, and subject to change. For entertainment purposes only. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.