{"id":2041,"date":"2026-09-04T10:11:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T14:11:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/?p=2041"},"modified":"2026-09-04T10:11:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T14:11:46","slug":"nfl-next-coach-fired-odds-2026-dan-quinn-enters-week-1-as-the-betting-favorite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/nfl-next-coach-fired-odds-2026-dan-quinn-enters-week-1-as-the-betting-favorite\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Next Coach Fired Odds 2026: Dan Quinn Enters Week 1 as the Betting Favorite"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Who’s the first NFL head coach to get axed in 2026? Dan Quinn, Todd Bowles and Aaron Glenn top the odds board as the regular season kicks off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The coaching carousel never really stops. Teams haven’t even kicked off Week 1 yet and sportsbooks already have a full board up on who’s getting fired first this season. It’s a little morbid, sure, but it’s also one of the more popular offbeat NFL prop markets out there, and this year’s board has a clear favorite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s where things stand heading into the 2026 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 NFL Next Coach Fired Odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Coach<\/strong><\/th>Team<\/strong><\/th>Odds<\/strong><\/th>Implied Probability<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Dan Quinn<\/td>Washington Commanders<\/td>+300<\/td>25.0%<\/td><\/tr>
Todd Bowles<\/td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/td>+350<\/td>22.2%<\/td><\/tr>
Aaron Glenn<\/td>New York Jets<\/td>+400<\/td>20.0%<\/td><\/tr>
Zac Taylor<\/td>Cincinnati Bengals<\/td>+900<\/td>10.0%<\/td><\/tr>
Shane Steichen<\/td>Indianapolis Colts<\/td>+900<\/td>10.0%<\/td><\/tr>
Nick Sirianni<\/td>Philadelphia Eagles<\/td>+1400<\/td>6.7%<\/td><\/tr>
Mike Vrabel<\/td>New England Patriots<\/td>+1600<\/td>5.9%<\/td><\/tr>
Brian Schottenheimer<\/td>Dallas Cowboys<\/td>+1600<\/td>5.9%<\/td><\/tr>
Dave Canales<\/td>Carolina Panthers<\/td>+1800<\/td>5.3%<\/td><\/tr>
Kevin O’Connell<\/td>Minnesota Vikings<\/td>+1800<\/td>5.3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odds reflect late preseason numbers. Lines move fast once real games start, so double-check your book before betting any of these.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dan Quinn, +300<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Quinn’s honeymoon in Washington is over. An NFC Championship run in year one made him look like a home-run hire; a 5-12 crash the following season put him right back on the hot seat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Commanders already fired offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury as a mid-season scapegoat last year, which tells you where this is headed if the defense, Quinn’s own specialty, and the unit that’s underperformed most, doesn’t turn a corner. Jayden Daniels staying healthy would help. So would a front office that isn’t gun-shy about making changes, and under Josh Harris, this one isn’t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Todd Bowles, +350<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nobody’s going to call four years of .500-ish football in Tampa a disaster. But the Glazers have shown before that they’ll move on from a coach who’s stopped climbing, just ask Tony Dungy, who got fired with a winning record. Bowles is 1-3 in the playoffs, the division is getting tougher (Carolina and New Orleans are both on the way up), and “solid but stuck” isn’t usually a formula that survives year five.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aaron Glenn, +400<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Glenn’s first season was ugly, 3-14 ugly, but the front office didn’t panic. Instead they used a strong draft class to surround Geno Smith with real talent on both sides of the ball. If that investment shows up on the field, Glenn probably gets year three without much drama. If it doesn’t, Woody Johnson’s patience has never exactly been legendary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taylor and Steichen, +900 each<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Two coaches, same basic problem: neither has broken through in the playoffs, and both are entering seasons where “no excuses” starts to apply. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taylor’s missed the postseason three years running despite having Joe Burrow under center, and Cincinnati just traded for Dexter Lawrence, not the move of a team planning to be patient. Steichen still hasn’t made the playoffs in Indianapolis, and he’s opening the year with Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles tear. Not exactly a stable launching pad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rest of the Board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After the top five, things get murkier. Sirianni’s seat runs hot mostly because Eagles fans expect a title every year, not because of anything specific he’s done wrong. Vrabel’s name shows up at +1600 largely due to an offseason scandal that followed him into camp, there’s been zero real signal the Patriots are moving on, but the market’s pricing in the noise anyway. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schottenheimer and Canales are both entering year two in Dallas and Carolina and need to show something. O’Connell only ends up here if Minnesota’s roster badly underperforms what it’s supposed to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Reality Check on Timing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If history is any guide, don’t expect fireworks in September. Look at when the first coach actually got fired each of the last four years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n