{"id":2261,"date":"2026-09-09T17:47:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T21:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/?p=2261"},"modified":"2026-09-09T19:08:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T23:08:56","slug":"first-nfl-qb-benched-odds-2026-deshaun-watson-enters-week-1-as-the-betting-favorite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/first-nfl-qb-benched-odds-2026-deshaun-watson-enters-week-1-as-the-betting-favorite\/","title":{"rendered":"First NFL QB Benched Odds 2026: Deshaun Watson Enters Week 1 as the Betting Favorite"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Who loses their starting job first in 2026? Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith top the board as the first-QB-benched market opens for the regular season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tFliff<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSpend $5, get $50 in free play. Plus a 100% match on your first purchase, up to $100.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Fliff<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
  2. \n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
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    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t2<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tRebet<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDeposit Match Up to $100 in Rebet Cash<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Rebet<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tT&Cs apply\t\t\t\t\t<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t18+\/21+, Sweepstakes Model, 1x WR, KYC Required, Min Redemption $10\u2013$20, Max Redemption $1,000\/Day, $0.75 Redemption Fee, Bank Transfer Only, AMOE Available, ReBet Coins Non-Redeemable.\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
  3. \n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
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    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t3<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tDabble<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay $5 Get $50<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Dabble<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
  4. \n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
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    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t4<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tBetr<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t100 BC No Sweat on Your First Enrty<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Betr<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t5<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tSmackTok<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t100% deposit match up to $50<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat SmackTok<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ol>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Every year a handful of Week 1 starters don’t make it to Thanksgiving with the job. Sometimes it’s injury-driven, but this particular market only cares about the benchings that are pure coaches’ decisions \u2014 a guy gets pulled because the tape is bad, not because he’s hurt. It’s a morbid little corner of NFL betting, but it’s a popular one, and this year’s board already has a clear favorite before a single regular-season snap has been taken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Here’s where the numbers stand heading into Week 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2026 First NFL QB Benched Odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    Quarterback<\/strong><\/th>Team<\/strong><\/th>Odds<\/strong><\/th>Implied Probability<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Deshaun Watson<\/td>Cleveland Browns<\/td>+100<\/td>50.0%<\/td><\/tr>
    Tua Tagovailoa<\/td>Atlanta Falcons<\/td>+250<\/td>28.6%<\/td><\/tr>
    Geno Smith<\/td>New York Jets<\/td>+300<\/td>25.0%<\/td><\/tr>
    Kirk Cousins<\/td>Las Vegas Raiders<\/td>+350<\/td>22.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Jacoby Brissett<\/td>Arizona Cardinals<\/td>+450<\/td>18.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Kyler Murray<\/td>Minnesota Vikings<\/td>+750<\/td>11.8%<\/td><\/tr>
    Malik Willis<\/td>Miami Dolphins<\/td>+1200<\/td>7.7%<\/td><\/tr>
    Bryce Young<\/td>Carolina Panthers<\/td>+1200<\/td>7.7%<\/td><\/tr>
    Jaxson Dart<\/td>New York Giants<\/td>+1400<\/td>6.7%<\/td><\/tr>
    Tyler Shough<\/td>New Orleans Saints<\/td>+1800<\/td>5.3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Lines will move once games start counting, so don’t treat these as gospel a few weeks from now \u2014 check your book before betting any of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Deshaun Watson, +100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Watson is basically a coin flip to be the first one out, and honestly, that tracks. He’s coming back from a torn Achilles that wiped out most of 2025, he hasn’t looked like the guy Cleveland traded a mountain of draft picks for since he arrived, and the Browns just so happen to have a fifth-round rookie sitting behind him who turned heads all preseason. Shedeur Sanders isn’t walking into a hostile fanbase like Watson is \u2014 he’s walking into one that would probably throw a parade the day the switch happens. Cleveland named Watson the Week 1 guy, but “named the starter” and “safe” are two very different things in this building.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t

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      \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tFliff<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
      \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSpend $5, get $50 in free play. Plus a 100% match on your first purchase, up to $100.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
      \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Fliff<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ol>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Tua Tagovailoa, +250<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Here’s a fun wrinkle: Tua was already benched once this year, just not in this market’s timeframe \u2014 Miami pulled him down the stretch of a lost 2025 season and cut him loose afterward. He landed in Atlanta on a minimum deal to compete with Michael Penix Jr., who’s working back from a torn ACL. For most of camp Tua had the job locked up. Then his play got shaky enough that reporters started saying the quiet part out loud \u2014 Penix is right back in the mix, and as of this week the Falcons still hadn’t committed to naming a starter beyond “whenever the depth chart forces our hand.” A guy who might not even survive to Week 1 as the starter is a strange thing to price at plus-250 to get benched during the season, but here we are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Geno Smith, +300<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      New team, same story. Smith left Las Vegas for the Jets, and Aaron Glenn’s rebuild doesn’t come with a ton of patience built in given how brutal Glenn’s first year on the job already looked. Smith’s a bridge option more than a long-term answer at this point in his career, and if the Jets are bad early \u2014 which is a real possibility \u2014 there’s not much reason for a first-year head coach to keep running a 36-year-old out there over evaluating what he’s got behind him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Kirk Cousins, +350<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Cousins landed in Las Vegas after Atlanta moved on from him, and the Raiders happen to be sitting on the No. 1 overall pick from this year’s draft. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman, led an undefeated title run at Indiana, and is currently pegged at Week 8 as his over\/under for a first career start \u2014 which tells you the sportsbooks think this is a matter of when, not if. Cousins is 37. He’s a bridge, and bridges get crossed.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t

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      1. \n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
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        \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tBetr<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t100 BC No Sweat on Your First Enrty<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Betr<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ol>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n\n

        <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Jacoby Brissett, +450<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Brissett’s entering year 11 as a journeyman starter, and Arizona has zero incentive to ride out a bad stretch with him if a better option is sitting on the roster. He went 1-11 as a starter in 2025. That’s not a typo. The Cardinals are in arguably the toughest division in football, and patience tends to run thin fast when the record backs it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The Rest of the Board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Kyler Murray (+750) is a name worth watching mostly because he’s had durability questions for years, not because Minnesota is unhappy with him \u2014 he’s sitting at 97% to start Week 1 on prediction markets, so this is more of an injury-adjacent play than a performance one. Malik Willis (+1200) got real money in Miami this offseason but has thrown fewer than 160 career passes, and Quinn Ewers is right there. Bryce Young (+1200) has quieted some of the Carolina doubters but the ceiling on patience isn’t infinite. Jaxson Dart (+1400) is a rookie who’s earned the job outright after taking over for Russell Wilson last year, so this number is mostly just rookie variance pricing. And Tyler Shough (+1800) is here more as a formality \u2014 the Saints went out of their way to hand him the keys after a strong finish to 2025, and it would take a genuine collapse for New Orleans to pull the plug that fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t

        \n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
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        1. \n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
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          \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tRebet<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
          \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDeposit Match Up to $100 in Rebet Cash<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t
          \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPlay now\t\t\t\t\t\tat Rebet<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tT&Cs apply\t\t\t\t\t<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
          \n\t\t\t\t\t18+\/21+, Sweepstakes Model, 1x WR, KYC Required, Min Redemption $10\u2013$20, Max Redemption $1,000\/Day, $0.75 Redemption Fee, Bank Transfer Only, AMOE Available, ReBet Coins Non-Redeemable.\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ol>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Don’t Expect Fireworks in Week 1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Benchings like this almost never happen in the season’s first couple weeks \u2014 teams want a real sample size before making a change, not one bad half. Last year’s first two benchings didn’t come until Week 4 and Week 5: the Giants sat Russell Wilson for rookie Jaxson Dart, and the Browns moved on from Joe Flacco in favor of Dillon Gabriel a week later. Neither move was a total shock in hindsight, but neither happened in a vacuum either \u2014 both quarterbacks had a body of work the coaching staff could actually point to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Expect the same pattern here. Whoever tops this board in October is anyone’s guess right now, and with three of the top five carrying real question marks before Week 1 even kicks off, don’t be surprised if this list looks completely different a month from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Who loses their starting job first in 2026? Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith top the board as the first-QB-benched market opens for the … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-picks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2261"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2264,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2261\/revisions\/2264"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.mr-gamble.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}