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Deposit $20 Get $50
If you’d told me on Oct. 1 that the Dodgers would be done before the World Series, I probably wouldn’t have bought it. LA was sitting at 29% on Polymarket back then and nobody else was even in the same neighborhood.
Fast forward three weeks and it’s Brewers vs. Rays. Game 1 is Friday night in Milwaukee.
Where the market sits right now
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Deposit $20 Get $50
Polymarket traders have Milwaukee at 63% to win it all, with Tampa Bay at 38%. Over $46 million has been traded on this one, so it’s not exactly a sleepy market.
In real money terms, $10 on the Brewers gets you about $5.90 in profit if they win. Same $10 on the Rays pays around $16.
Honestly the Brewers being favored isn’t a shock. They won 103 games, the most in baseball, and then went into LA and swept the champs.
You can trade it by going directly to: https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-world-series-champion-2026
The NLCS flipped everything
Here’s how fast things changed:
| Team | Mid-Sept | Oct. 15 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 14% | 58% | 63% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 9% | 23% | 38% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 31% | 7% | Out |
| New York Yankees | 10% | Out | Out |
Milwaukee was trailing at some point in all four NLCS games and still won every one of them. Garrett Mitchell hit the go-ahead homer in Game 4, and Jake Bauers walked away with series MVP.
There’s some payback in there too. The Dodgers swept the Brewers in the NLCS last year, and no team had ever returned the favor the next postseason until Milwaukee pulled it off last week.
The Rays aren’t just happy to be here
Tampa Bay finished off Cleveland in six games Monday night at the Trop. While that series was still going, they were only at 23% on Polymarket. Now they’re closing in on 40%.
It’s just the third World Series in team history and their first since 2020. They’ve only dropped a couple of games all October, and they matched Milwaukee for the best home record in baseball this season.
Also worth mentioning, neither franchise has ever won a title. Whoever takes this, it’s a first.
Polymarket vs. the sportsbooks
The books aren’t quite as high on Milwaukee as Polymarket traders are.
| Polymarket | US Sportsbooks (no vig) | |
|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 63% (-170) | 59–61% |
| Rays | 38% | 39–41% |
| Brewers to win Game 1 | ~61% | 59–60% |
It’s only a few points, but it matters. If you’re on the Brewers, you’ll probably get a slightly better price at a sportsbook. Rays people, Polymarket is where you want to be.
Game 1
Jacob Misiorowski is projected to face Drew Rasmussen, which should be a fun one to watch. Keep an eye on official rotation news before Friday since that could nudge prices a point or two.
And if Tampa Bay steals Game 1 on the road, expect this market to get a lot closer real fast.
Odds shown reflect Polymarket pricing at the time of writing and are subject to change. Polymarket is a prediction market, not a licensed sportsbook, and availability varies by jurisdiction.
