Way-Too-Early Heisman Winner Odds After Week 2

Two weeks in and the Heisman race already looks nothing like it did on Labor Day. Forget the preseason magazine covers — this thing is being decided by whoever’s lighting up a scoreboard on Saturday night, and right now that’s a two-man show up top with the hero of college football’s biggest comeback so far trying to crash the party.

Heisman Winner Odds After Week 2

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, updated after Week 2 (Sept. 13, 2026). DraftKings’ full board only carries a top 10 at this stage of the season.

The Favorite, and the Guy Chasing Him

Darian Mensah (Miami, QB) — +550 Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State, WR) — +650

Smith briefly grabbed the top spot on DraftKings’ board Saturday night off the strength of his Texas performance, but Mensah had reclaimed the favorite’s tag by Sunday morning. Smith turned 16 targets into eight catches, 164 yards and a touchdown against Texas — gaudy numbers in a losing effort, which tells you the voters (and the oddsmakers) are grading him on tape, not just the box score. Mensah, meanwhile, has been nearly unstoppable: eight touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a completion percentage north of 90 through two weeks after torching Florida A&M. A wideout and a gunslinging transfer QB running this close together this early is exactly the kind of chaos that makes this race fun to bet on.

The Chaser

Arch Manning (Texas, QB) — +1000

Manning delivered the single biggest result of the young season. Texas trailed Ohio State 23-3 entering the fourth quarter and stormed back to win 24-23, with Manning leading the comeback in Austin against the reigning No. 1 team in the country. Beating a top-ranked opponent from 20 down is exactly the kind of signature win that moves a Heisman needle — don’t be shocked if Manning is the favorite by October, especially with the name recognition amplifying every good performance from here.

The Rest of the Contenders

Julian Sayin sits at +1500, with CJ Carr at +1050 and Miami’s other big name, receiver Malachi Toney, at +1300. Ole Miss transfer Trinidad Chambliss is right there with Toney at +1300, and LSU’s Sam Leavitt has drifted out to +2500 — though his four picks over two games are the kind of thing that can tank a campaign fast if it keeps up.

Who Fell Off Already

Two weeks is nothing, and yet John Mateer and Dante Moore have already dropped out of DraftKings’ top 10 entirely. Mateer went from a top-10 price to an afterthought after Oklahoma’s 17-10 loss at Michigan. Moore’s stock took a similar hit when Oregon fell 39-31 to Oklahoma State as roughly a 23-point underdog. That’s the Heisman race in September: one bad Saturday and you’re off the board before the leaves even change color.

The Early Read

Mensah’s +550 works out to roughly an 18% implied shot once you strip out the vig, with Smith right behind him — which is really just the market saying nobody’s pulled away yet. History says the frontrunner in mid-September rarely matches the guy hoisting the trophy in December, so treat this as exactly what it is: way, way too early. But if you’re looking for value before the field narrows, this is the window to grab a number that won’t exist in a month