Weird week for this board. Mike Norvell didn’t even play — Florida State had a bye — and he’s still the guy everyone’s talking about. Meanwhile seven other coaches went out and won (mostly blew people out, honestly), and the market moved accordingly. Nobody closed the gap on Norvell. They just all backed away from him at once.
Next College Football Coach Fired Odds (Post-Week 2)
| Coach | Team | Week 2 Result | New Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Norvell | Florida State | Bye week | +225 | 30.8% |
| Dave Aranda | Baylor | W, 44-3 vs. Prairie View A&M | +700 | 12.5% |
| Lance Leipold | Kansas | L, 21-38 vs. Missouri | +900 | 10.0% |
| Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | W, 36-9 vs. Western Illinois | +900 | 10.0% |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | W, 28-21 vs. Rutgers | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Jeff Lebby | Mississippi State | W, 38-13 at Minnesota | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Bill Belichick | North Carolina | W, 35-3 vs. East Tennessee State | +3500 | 2.8% |
| Shane Beamer | South Carolina | W, 45-9 vs. Towson | +3500 | 2.8% |
These are current as of early Week 3, and they won’t stay put — shop around before betting any of it.
So what actually moved, and why
Start with Norvell, since that’s the whole story right now. He didn’t do anything this week — literally sat home — and he still got shorter, from +250 to +225. That’s what happens when everyone around you wins. The gap between him and the field just got wider without him lifting a finger. Alabama’s waiting for him on the road Sept. 19, and that’s not the kind of game that fixes a defense that’s now had issues in back-to-back weeks.
Dave Aranda’s in a similar spot to a lot of coaches on this list — better week, sure, but let’s not pretend beating an FCS team 44-3 erases much. It moved him from +450 to +700, mostly because a bad loss to Auburn is a week further in the rearview mirror now. He still hasn’t beaten anyone who matters this season.
Lance Leipold’s the one name on here that actually got worse. Kansas dropped the Border War 38-21 to a ranked Missouri squad — the fifth straight loss in that series, for what it’s worth. Not a disaster by itself. But it’s the kind of result that keeps a coach’s name circulating on lists like this instead of letting it quietly disappear. He went from +1200 to +900.
Everyone else? Good week, some of them really good. Wisconsin thumped an overmatched Western Illinois team to answer the Notre Dame loss. Boston College got Bill O’Brien his first win of the year, a two-score result against Rutgers that buys him some room before Virginia Tech and a road trip to SMU show up on the schedule. Mississippi State’s rolling — 2-0 now, 38-13 at Minnesota, Jeff Lebby barely resembling a hot-seat coach at this point. And then there’s Belichick and Beamer, who both looked like they might not make it to October a couple weeks ago and are now sitting at +3500 apiece after blowing out overmatched opponents. Long way from where either of them started August.
Zooming out
Take away the week-to-week noise and not much has actually changed. Florida State is still the clear outlier here — three ACC wins across two seasons, a defense with real problems, and now a one-score loss that could’ve gone either way. Everybody else bought some patience this week. Some bought more than others. That can flip in a hurry, though. A loss at Alabama probably doesn’t move Norvell’s number much — he’s already priced like the worst-case scenario. But a Fickell loss to Penn State later this month, or O’Brien stumbling against Virginia Tech, and this whole board looks different by October.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.