Two weeks ago Bill Belichick was one of the safer names on this list, sitting way out at +3500 after a couple of blowout wins. That’s over now. North Carolina blew a 17-6 halftime lead in a 28-20 loss to Clemson, and it came two days after news broke that Steve Belichick — the Tar Heels’ defensive coordinator, and yes, Bill’s son — is resigning once his medical leave wraps up, following an internal investigation into the program. There are now national college football writers openly saying UNC should move on from him. That’s a different conversation than “good coach, rough patch” from a couple weeks back.
Norvell’s still technically the favorite. He blew a 15-point lead of his own against Alabama and lost 50-36, a game where Florida State’s defense looked every bit as broken as it did last year. But Belichick closed the gap in a hurry, and depending on how the next couple weeks go, he might not stay in second place for long.
Next College Football Coach Fired Odds (Post-Week 3)
| Coach | Team | Week 3 Result | New Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Norvell | Florida State | L, 36-50 at Alabama | +175 | 36.4% |
| Bill Belichick | North Carolina | L, 20-28 vs. Clemson | +400 | 20.0% |
| Lance Leipold | Kansas | L, 17-24 vs. Arizona State (London) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Dave Aranda | Baylor | W, 36-19 vs. Louisiana Tech | +900 | 10.0% |
| Shane Beamer | South Carolina | L, 34-41 vs. Mississippi State | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | W, 54-10 vs. Eastern Michigan | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | W, 22-16 vs. Maine | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Jeff Lebby | Mississippi State | W, 41-34 at South Carolina | +6000 | 1.6% |
Current as of early Week 4. Lines will keep shifting through the week, especially around UNC — books tend to react fast to stories like this one.
Norvell — still the favorite, and not really debatable
Florida State led by 15 in Tuscaloosa. Alabama scored on five straight possessions across the second and third quarters and just ran away with it, 50-36. FSU is 1-2, 0-1 in the ACC, and the defense has now been a real problem in three of its first three games against anyone decent. Nobody’s under more pressure on this board. He just also isn’t sitting there alone anymore.
Belichick — the story nobody expected two weeks ago
Here’s the timeline: Steve Belichick goes on medical leave in August for reasons the program hasn’t detailed. An internal investigation runs its course. Two days before the Clemson game, word comes out that Steve is resigning once the leave is over. Then North Carolina — up 17-6 at half, in position for a 3-0 start and its best win of the Belichick era — gives up 22 unanswered points and loses 28-20. Reporters covering the program are now writing headlines like “needs to be fired” and connecting the loss directly to the chaos around the program. Whether or not UNC’s administration actually moves this fast, the market clearly thinks this is live. He went from +3500 to +400 in one week, which is about as big a swing as this kind of board sees.
Leipold and Beamer — two coaches trending the wrong way
Kansas lost the Border War two weeks ago and now dropped a game in London to Arizona State, 24-17, on a kickoff return touchdown and some special-teams breakdowns that Leipold basically called inexcusable afterward. Two losses in three weeks isn’t a crisis by itself, but it’s not nothing either — he moved to +700.
Beamer’s is worse, honestly. South Carolina went up 16-0 on Mississippi State and lost anyway, 41-34, after Kamario Taylor threw four touchdowns and the Gamecocks’ defense couldn’t get a stop for the final 24 minutes. That’s South Carolina’s sixth straight SEC loss going back to last season, which is the kind of stat that gets repeated a lot if this keeps up. He went from +3500 all the way in to +1400.
Everybody else
Aranda’s fine — a solid, unspectacular win over Louisiana Tech with a backup quarterback playing well, and he’s 2-1 now with real signs of life on offense. Fickell blew out Eastern Michigan 54-10, the kind of week that buys goodwill without really changing anyone’s opinion of Wisconsin. O’Brien’s win over Maine is the one that should probably worry Boston College fans more than help them — Maine was nearly a 40-point underdog, and BC only won by six. And then there’s Lebby, who just beat South Carolina on the road after trailing 16-0, and is now 3-0 with as good a case as anyone in the SEC that he’s not a hot-seat coach at all anymore. He’s basically on this list out of habit at this point.
The bigger picture
This is now a two-name story. Norvell’s problem is on the field and has been building for two years — the buyout’s the only thing keeping him employed, and everybody knows it. Belichick’s problem started off the field and then bled into the results, which is a different kind of dangerous for a coach, because it means fixing the on-field product might not even be enough by itself. Keep an eye on how UNC’s administration handles the next couple of weeks. That’ll tell you more than any game will.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.