Next College Football Coach Fired Odds: Mike Locksley Is the Favorite Now

Last week it was Beamer’s board. This week it belongs to Mike Locksley.

Maryland lost 45-16 to No. 5 Ohio State, which nobody’s going to call an upset. But it’s four straight losses now, the Terps are 2-4, and they’re 0-3 in the Big Ten. Locksley’s record against ranked Big Ten teams is 0-21.

Meanwhile Mike Norvell took a beating at Louisville, and Beamer and Belichick both got huge wins.

Next College Football Coach Fired Odds (Post-Week 6)

CoachTeamWeek 6 ResultNew OddsImplied ProbabilityWeek 5 Odds
Mike LocksleyMarylandL, 16-45 at Ohio State+15040.0%+250
Mike NorvellFlorida StateL, 20-44 at Louisville+20033.3%+400
Shane BeamerSouth CarolinaW, 38-19 at Florida+60014.3%+200
Bill BelichickNorth CarolinaW, 21-17 at Pittsburgh+90010.0%+450
Bill O’BrienBoston CollegeBye week+10009.1%+1000
Lance LeipoldKansasL, 24-41 at Utah+18005.3%+2500
Dave ArandaBaylorBye week+30003.2%+3000
Luke FickellWisconsinBye week+50002.0%+5000

Quick note: these are my own numbers, not live sportsbook lines. Check a licensed book before you bet any of it.

Locksley, and it’s not close

Maryland had a pick-six, which tells you how the offense went. Malik Washington threw for 64 yards. That’s a career low. The Terps gave up 449 total yards and ran for 82.

After the game Locksley said he’d keep showing up “with a plan to attack the issues.” Asked when the improvements turn into wins, he said “yesterday.” Fair enough, but a $10 million buyout isn’t the obstacle it is for some of these guys. Rutgers is next, and that’s about as close to a must-win as it gets.

Norvell’s in trouble again

Florida State went to Louisville and lost 44-20. That’s 11 straight road losses for the Seminoles. Norvell called it “an extremely poor performance by us” and said “it starts with me.”

The thing that keeps people hesitant is the money, a buyout somewhere around $47 million. But a 3-3 team that can’t win away from Tallahassee is going to have people in the building asking questions. His odds got a lot shorter, +400 to +200.

Beamer takes a big step back

South Carolina went into Gainesville, as the underdog, and won 38-19. LaNorris Sellers threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another. It’s the Gamecocks’ first win over Florida since 2021.

Beamer called it a “program win.” He also admitted he hears the criticism, saying “I get the criticism, I do dude.” They’re 3-3 and 1-3 in the SEC, off this week, then Tennessee. The +200 to +600 move is the biggest drop on the board.

Belichick gets his signature win

North Carolina went to Pittsburgh and beat No. 25 Pitt, 21-17. It’s his first win over a ranked team at UNC, and it took a while to get there.

Pitt outgained the Heels 213-98 in the first half. Then Demon June scored from a yard out late in the third, and Billy Edwards Jr. found Shamar Easter for 75 yards early in the fourth. Pitt was playing a backup quarterback, sure. Mason Heintschel went down with a season-ending knee injury the week before. Still counts.

O’Brien, Leipold, Aranda and Fickell

Boston College was off. The Eagles are 2-3 and winless in the ACC, and Pitt visits on Oct. 17, a team that just lost, which helps. O’Brien stays at +1000.

Leipold’s Kansas lost 41-24 at No. 12 Utah. Isaiah Marshall threw for 333 yards, but it wasn’t enough, and Leipold picked up an unsportsmanlike flag along the way. He said afterward “we just got to execute better.” Kansas State is next. A rivalry game can fix a lot, but it can also make things worse.

Baylor (5-1) and Wisconsin (4-1) were both off. Aranda has TCU in Waco on Oct. 17, and Fickell goes to UCLA the same day. Neither one moves this week.

No head coaches were fired this past week, either.

Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.

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