Maryland was up 23-16 at the half. Then it all went sideways, and Rutgers won 37-30.
Five straight losses now for Mike Locksley. The Terps are 2-5, 0-4 in the Big Ten, and on Sunday they fired their defensive coordinator, Ted Monachino. Locksley kept his job. For now.
Everybody else had a week too. Norvell lost a crazy one at Miami, Belichick beat Duke, and Leipold and Aranda both got beat.
Next College Football Coach Fired Odds (Post-Week 7)
| Coach | Team | Week 7 Result | New Odds | Implied Probability | Week 6 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Locksley | Maryland | L, 30-37 vs. Rutgers | +110 | 47.6% | +150 |
| Mike Norvell | Florida State | L, 35-43 (2OT) at Miami | +250 | 28.6% | +200 |
| Shane Beamer | South Carolina | Bye week | +600 | 14.3% | +600 |
| Lance Leipold | Kansas | L, 24-35 at Kansas State | +900 | 10.0% | +1800 |
| Bill Belichick | North Carolina | W, 24-20 at Duke | +1500 | 6.3% | +900 |
| Dave Aranda | Baylor | L, 6-17 vs. TCU | +2000 | 4.8% | +3000 |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | W, 27-21 vs. Pittsburgh | +2500 | 3.8% | +1000 |
| Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | L, 7-17 at UCLA | +3500 | 2.8% | +5000 |
Quick note: these are my own numbers, not live sportsbook lines. Check a licensed book before you bet any of it.
Locksley is right on the edge
Maryland scored on three of its first five drives and looked fine. After the break, nothing. Rutgers held the ball for over 35 minutes and went 9-for-14 on third down. Maryland was 4-for-13.
Malik Washington threw for 263 and led a quick touchdown drive late to make it 37-30. The last shot ended on fourth-and-3 at the Rutgers 11, when a pass to Dorian Fleming was ruled incomplete because he stepped out of bounds. Replay couldn’t overturn it.
Locksley is 39-54 since 2019. He said “everything’s on the table” during the bye week. Reporting says a move before the bye is unlikely, and Maryland doesn’t play again until Illinois on Oct. 31. The buyout is reportedly around $9-10 million.
So why +110 and not something shorter? Because firing the DC is what schools do when they want to avoid firing the head coach. It buys time. But how much time?
Norvell lost the best game on the board
Florida State went to Miami, the No. 3 team in the country, and lost 43-35 in double overtime. Ashton Daniels threw for 298 and four touchdowns. Duce Robinson’s 75-yard catch tied it at 28 late in regulation.
Then the officials got involved. In the second overtime a deep touchdown pass was called back for holding. On the last play, Daniels threw to Robinson in the end zone, and it was ruled an interception. Replay upheld it. Norvell said “go watch the film” about the holding call and “I didn’t get an explanation” about the finish. He also said “just sick.”
FSU is 3-4 and 1-3 in the ACC. That’s another loss, but it’s a loss to the No. 3 team in a game his guys nearly stole. It’s hard to push a guy out the week after that. His odds lengthened from +200 to +250, since a near-miss against the No. 3 team doesn’t read like a program in free fall. Bye week, then Clemson on Oct. 31. A ~$47 million buyout still helps him.
Beamer holds
South Carolina was off. The Gamecocks are 3-3 and 1-3 in the SEC after the Florida win, and Tennessee comes to Columbia on Oct. 24. Nothing moves. He stays at +600.
Leipold got a lot shorter
Kansas lost 35-24 at Kansas State, and that’s 18 straight for the Wildcats in the series. The Jayhawks are 2-4, coming off a loss at Utah the week before.
It was close. Kansas State led 18-17 at halftime and a 45-yard Kansas touchdown run got erased by a facemask penalty. Isaiah Marshall ran for 116 yards but threw an interception in the end zone late. Leipold said “all losses sting, this one stings a lot” and that his team “didn’t rise to the occasion.”
His number went from +1800 to +900, the biggest jump on the board. And Baylor comes to Lawrence next, with Aranda on the other sideline.
Belichick’s rivalry win
North Carolina went to Duke and won 24-20. The Heels were up 17-0 in the second quarter, then Duke came all the way back. UNC took it back on a 24-yard Jaylen McGill touchdown run, and Kenton Dopson III picked off Duke’s quarterback with 19 seconds left.
Belichick went for it on fourth-and-4 in the final four minutes. His explanation: “I wasn’t punting again.” UNC is 4-2, back-to-back wins, and the Victory Bell is coming home for the first time since 2023. His odds went from +900 to +1500.
O’Brien, Aranda and Fickell
O’Brien got Boston College its first ACC win, 27-21 over Pittsburgh. Pitt scored on its first play, led 12-0, and BC answered with 21 straight. Mason McKenzie threw for 295. The Eagles are 3-3 and 1-2 in the league, and O’Brien dropped from +1000 to +2500.
Aranda’s Baylor lost 17-6 to TCU. DJ Lagway went 22-for-53 and the Bears ran for 54 yards. Aranda is now 1-6 against TCU. Baylor is 5-2, so +2000 from +3000 seems about right.
Fickell lost 17-7 at No. 12 UCLA. The Badgers committed 10 penalties for 102 yards, and he said he didn’t like “stupid penalties.” Wisconsin is 4-2, hosts USC next, then travels to Iowa. Back to +3500.
No head coaches were fired this past week.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.
