Florida State finally did it. Mike Norvell got fired Sunday, roughly 12 hours after Clemson beat the Seminoles 36-24 and dropped them to 3-5. He was the favorite on this board last week, so you could see it coming.
That’s five FBS head coaches gone since Oct. 21: Locksley, Doeren, Aranda, Phil Longo at Sam Houston, and now Norvell. With him off the list, Greg Schiano at Rutgers moves to the top, and I added Brent Key and Brent Venables.
Next College Football Coach Fired Odds (Post-Week 9)
| Coach | Team | Week 9 Result | New Odds | Implied Probability | Week 8 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Schiano | Rutgers | L, 21-28 vs. Michigan | +200 | 33.3% | +600 |
| Brent Key | Georgia Tech | L, 11-34 at Pittsburgh | +450 | 18.2% | New |
| Deion Sanders | Colorado | W, 27-24 (OT) vs. Kansas State | +500 | 16.7% | +350 |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | L, 2-47 at Duke | +700 | 12.5% | +4000 |
| Bill Belichick | North Carolina | L, 35-38 vs. Miami | +1000 | 9.1% | +1200 |
| Brent Venables | Oklahoma | L, 25-42 vs. South Carolina | +1500 | 6.3% | New |
| Lance Leipold | Kansas | L, 16-22 at TCU | +2000 | 4.8% | +2500 |
| Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | L, 0-30 at Iowa | +2500 | 3.8% | +8000 |
Quick note: these are my own numbers, not live sportsbook lines. Check a licensed book before you bet any of it.
Schiano (+200)
Rutgers tied Michigan at 21 late and still lost 28-21 on a Tommy Carr run with 4:19 left. The Scarlet Knights are 2-6, 1-4 in the Big Ten, and they played this one without starting quarterback Dylan Lonergan. Backup AJ Surace went 3-of-12, though one of the three was an 80-yard touchdown. Schiano’s take: “We’re getting better but not as quickly as I would like.”
The buyout is about $18.5 million if they go this year, and reportedly drops to around $11.7 million after 2027. That’s what’s kept him alive. Rutgers goes to Wisconsin next Saturday, and that one matters for a certain other coach on this list.
Key (+450)
New name. Georgia Tech lost 34-11 at Pitt and averaged 3.1 yards a play. They’re 2-6 and 1-4 in the ACC, and they’ve lost 10 of 13 since that 8-0 start last year. Brent Key signed a new five-year deal not long ago, which is probably the only reason he isn’t shorter.
Sanders (+500)
Colorado beat Kansas State 27-24 in overtime, so the five-game losing streak is over. Richard Young ran for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Sanders said they “should have never gone to overtime,” and he’s right. The Buffs are 3-5. His buyout is around $26 million, per SI. Arizona State is next.
O’Brien (+700)
This was ugly. Boston College lost 47-2 at Duke, down 27-2 at the half, with 15 penalties for 132 yards. Duke’s Nate Sheppard ran for five touchdowns, a school record. BC’s only points were a 2-point return on a botched extra point. O’Brien said, “I didn’t do a good enough job of getting them prepared to play.” They’re 4-4, host Florida State at noon Saturday, and he went from +4000 to +700, the biggest jump on the board.
Belichick (+1000)
North Carolina lost 38-35 to No. 1 Miami at home. Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns with no picks, but a fumble at the UNC 37 with 5:33 left set up Miami’s go-ahead score. The Heels made it a three-point game with 1:38 to go and Miami recovered the onside kick. It’s the first time a team has beaten Belichick while scoring 35 or more.
UNC is 4-4, 2-3 in the ACC, and has lost three straight at home. Belichick called it “disappointing to come up short here two weeks in a row.” UConn next.
Venables (+1500)
Another new one. Oklahoma lost 42-25 at home to South Carolina and the defense gave up 521 yards, the most since the Sooners joined the SEC. They’re 4-4. Venables called it embarrassing. The $52.5 million buyout after his extension is a big reason he’s not shorter.
Everybody else
Leipold (+2000) had Kansas up 13-0 at the half at TCU and outgained them 451 to 286, then lost 22-16 on a late touchdown run. The Jayhawks are 3-5. Fickell (+2500) had a rough one too. Wisconsin lost 30-0 at Iowa, his fifth straight loss to the Hawkeyes. The Badgers are 5-3 and host Rutgers next, and one Yahoo piece says a loss there would make the talk about his job louder than ever.
Off the board this week: Beamer, whose South Carolina team won 42-25 at Oklahoma and is 5-3, and Lincoln Riley, who beat No. 2 Ohio State 30-18 and fell out of SI’s top-six hot seat list.
Who’s been fired
Locksley, Maryland (Oct. 21): 2-5, about $10 million owed. Aazaar Abdul-Rahim is the interim.
Doeren, NC State (Oct. 24): 3-4 in year 14. Todd Goebbel is the interim.
Aranda, Baylor (Oct. 25): 4-3, 40-40 in seven seasons. Joe Klanderman is the interim.
Longo, Sam Houston (Oct. 28): 1-7 this year, 3-17 in less than two seasons. Eric Raisbeck and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay are interim co-coaches.
Norvell, Florida State (Nov. 1): 3-5, 41-39 in six-plus seasons. The buyout is about $47 million. Rick Stockstill is the interim. President Richard McCullough said, “We have made the decision to change the leadership of our football program.” FSU also fired its athletic director back in September.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.
