Three weeks in, and this week didn’t just move the board — it flipped a couple of storylines completely upside down. One coach who looked like the runaway favorite to get fired just lost his starting quarterback for at least three weeks. Another coach who was 0-2 and down to his backup quarterback just knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs. Read below for where we see things after the first few games.
Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds — Updated After Week 3
| Coach | Team | Record | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-3 | +240 | 29.4% |
| Matt LaFleur | Green Bay Packers | 1-2 | +550 | 15.4% |
| Shane Steichen | Indianapolis Colts | 1-2 | +650 | 13.3% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | Dallas Cowboys | 1-2 | +750 | 11.8% |
| Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | 1-2 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Dan Quinn | Washington Commanders | 1-2 | +900 | 10.0% |
| DeMeco Ryans | Houston Texans | 0-3 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Dave Canales | Carolina Panthers | 1-2 | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-1 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Robert Saleh | Tennessee Titans | 0-3 | +1800 | 5.3% |
Bowles (Buccaneers): Still the Favorite, and It’s Not Close
Tampa Bay dropped to 0-3 after a 23-16 loss to Minnesota, and the loss itself isn’t even the biggest news. Baker Mayfield hurt his thumb in that game and is now out a minimum of three weeks — the Bucs are turning to an undrafted rookie at quarterback while a coach who already had the shortest odds on the board watches his season fall apart. This isn’t a “rough afternoon on defense” problem anymore. It’s an 0-3 team that just lost its $165 million quarterback with no signature win anywhere in sight. His number got shorter for a reason.
LaFleur (Packers): From an Afterthought to a Real Name
Two weeks ago, LaFleur was barely on this list at all. Then Green Bay got run off the field by Atlanta, 35-14, and dropped to 1-2. A coach who signed an extension this offseason isn’t going anywhere in October regardless of one bad loss, but that kind of margin against a team the Packers were favored over is exactly the sort of result that gets a name added to a board it wasn’t previously on.
Steichen (Colts): A Win, But the Tank’s Still Near Empty
Indianapolis beat Houston 19-17 for the first win of the season, and it matters — a coach who was 0-2 and staring down another lost year at least has something on the board now. It doesn’t erase four seasons without a playoff appearance, though, and one win over a Texans team that’s also struggling isn’t enough to move him out of the top tier entirely.
Schottenheimer (Cowboys) and Glenn (Jets): Treading Water
Dallas lost a shootout to Baltimore, 34-31, and New York fell to Detroit, 31-24 — both now sit at 1-2, neither climbing nor sinking dramatically. Schottenheimer’s staying power still comes down to Jerry Jones’ patience more than any single result. Glenn’s Jets are at least competitive most weeks, which counts for something even without a signature win yet.
Quinn (Commanders): He Might’ve Bought Himself a Month
Nobody saw this coming. Washington, playing without Jayden Daniels and starting Marcus Mariota, went into Seattle and beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, 33-31. That’s not a moral victory — that’s a real result against one of the best teams in the league, on the road, with a backup quarterback. Quinn was the No. 2 name on the board two weeks ago. This win is exactly the kind of result that buys a coach real time with ownership, and his odds moved accordingly.
A New Name on the Board: DeMeco Ryans (Texans)
Houston fell to 0-3 after Sunday’s loss to Indianapolis, and Ryans is now showing up on other coach-firing boards for the first time this season — reportedly around +1200 elsewhere. Nobody thinks the Texans are moving on from him mid-season; ownership’s patience there is well documented. But an 0-3 start with real expectations attached is the kind of thing that gets a coach’s name added to lists it wasn’t on a month ago, so he’s in this table now too.
Canales (Panthers), Sirianni (Eagles) and Saleh (Titans)
Carolina lost to Cleveland, 21-18, and sits at 1-2 — a step back after the big response win over Atlanta the week before. Philadelphia is the one that should worry its own fan base more than the record suggests: the Eagles went into Chicago as the league’s last unbeaten team and got demolished, 27-7, on Monday Night Football. Still 2-1, still shorter odds than most of this board, but that kind of loss on national television reopens a conversation people thought was closed for the year. Tennessee lost to the Giants, 12-7, and remains winless at 0-3, sitting quietly near the bottom of this list without much national attention.
Bottom Line
Bowles is still the clear favorite, and after this weekend, he might be the only real lock left in the top two. Quinn’s number should keep moving the other direction if Washington can build on that Seattle win, and Steichen bought himself a little room too. Keep an eye on Ryans and LaFleur — both are new or newly-relevant names that weren’t drawing real attention a month ago. Expect the actual sportsbooks to catch up with a fresh repricing of their own over the next few days.
Odds and implied probabilities reflect our own analysis based on current-week results and the last verified board, not a live sportsbook line. Confirm current odds with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.