Five weeks in, and three teams still haven’t won a game.
The Titans, Dolphins and Chargers are all 0-5. The Cardinals aren’t much better at 1-4, and their only win came against those same Chargers back in Week 1.
Nobody gets mathematically eliminated in October. But this race is already taking shape, and a couple of these teams look like they’re sprinting toward it.
Here’s our board.
First Team Eliminated From Playoff Contention Odds
| Team | Record | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | +200 | 33.3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 0-5 | +240 | 29.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1-4 | +350 | 22.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-5 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1-4 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-4 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Field | — | +2500 | 3.8% |
Odds are Mr. Gamble editorial odds, built off bet365’s “to make the playoffs” prices as of Oct. 13. No sportsbook currently posts this market.
Miami Dolphins, +200
Miami has the worst point differential in football at -62. That’s the whole case right there.
Malik Willis has been rough at QB. De’Von Achane is out. Rookie Ollie Gordon has given them some life in the run game, but that’s about the only good news.
They actually played the Bengals tight on Sunday, losing 31-24. Didn’t matter.
bet365 has them +9400 to make the playoffs, the longest price in the league. That’s why they’re our favorite here.
The one thing slowing them down? A Week 6 bye. You can’t lose games while you’re sitting at home, and that could let someone else get there first.
Tennessee Titans, +240
This is Tennessee’s first 0-5 start since 2009.
And Sunday was ugly. Houston came to Nashville with zero wins and left with a 26-3 blowout. That’s a home loss to a team that hadn’t won all year.
Cam Ward has weapons. He just isn’t doing much with them.
The schedule doesn’t help either. They’re at Indianapolis this week as touchdown underdogs. Lose that one and they’re 0-6 while Miami sits on its couch.
If I had to pick one team to take Miami’s spot at the top, it’s this one.
Arizona Cardinals, +350
Arizona is actually priced worse than Tennessee to make the playoffs at +7800. So why not higher on this board?
The record. One win buys you a little cushion in this market.
That cushion won’t last long though. The Cardinals got smoked 45-21 by Detroit on Sunday and they’ve lost four straight. Dating back to last season, they’re 2-18 in their last 20 games.
Then they traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston. That’s a team telling you it cares more about next year.
Next up is a trip to the Rams as 12.5-point dogs. The schedule stays brutal for weeks after that, and they don’t get a bye until Week 14.
Los Angeles Chargers, +1000
Nobody saw this coming. The Chargers were supposed to be one of the better teams in the AFC.
Instead they’re 0-5 and have dropped eight straight going back to last December. Justin Herbert is having the worst year of his career, and the line still can’t protect him.
So why the long price? They’ve been close. The last three losses came against the Bills, Seahawks and Broncos, all by a touchdown or less.
That’s a team that could rip off a few wins out of nowhere. Still, they’re at Kansas City on Sunday as 8.5-point underdogs, and 0-6 heading into a bye would get loud fast.
New Orleans Saints, +1600
The Saints have dropped three straight. Tyler Shough has turned it over five times in that stretch, and they managed just 142 yards against Minnesota on Sunday.
So why +1600? The division.
Carolina leads the NFC South at 3-2. That’s it. A 1-4 team is only two games back, and that keeps the Saints alive longer than their play deserves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +2000
Same deal as New Orleans. The Bucs got their first win last Thursday in Dallas with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at QB, and they’re still sitting in a winnable division.
Todd Bowles is on the hot seat, and the next four games are Pittsburgh, Carolina, Atlanta and Chicago. That could turn ugly.
But a weak NFC South makes it really hard to get mathematically eliminated early.
The Field, +2500
The Field covers everybody else.
The most interesting name in there is Washington. The Commanders are 1-3-1 after that disastrous tie with the Giants, where Jayden Daniels let the clock run out in overtime with a chip-shot field goal waiting.
Houston (1-4) and the Jets (2-3) are in there too, but both look like they’ve got enough to stay in the mix for a while.
When Will We Know?
Not for a while. Getting mathematically eliminated means there’s no path left, even if you win out. That usually doesn’t happen until around Thanksgiving.
Three games to watch this week:
- Titans at Colts: Tennessee is a 7-point dog. 0-6 is very much in play.
- Cardinals at Rams: Arizona is getting 12.5 points.
- Chargers at Chiefs: LA is an 8.5-point dog heading into its bye.
Miami is off, so a rough Sunday for the Titans could flip the top of this board.
Odds are for entertainment purposes and subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
