Brian Thomas Jr. Next Team Odds: Will the Jaguars Trade BTJ?

Brian Thomas Jr. made a Pro Bowl as a rookie. Two years later, he played 19 snaps Thursday night in Baltimore and didn’t catch a pass.

The trade deadline is tomorrow at 4 p.m. ET, and the reporting is all over the place. The Athletic’s Jonathan Jones says a deal “seems certain.” Jacksonville is 6-2 and has already turned down offers. Somebody’s wrong.

No sportsbook has a market up on this, so we built our own. Here’s how we’d price it. If you want to see where real NFL lines are posted, check our best NFL betting sites and apps.

Brian Thomas Jr. Next Team Odds

Odds are Mr. Gamble projections as of November 9, 2026, and aren’t available at sportsbooks.

Why Is BTJ on the Block?

The production fell off a cliff.

As a rookie in 2024, Thomas went for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year he has 10 catches for 117 yards and two scores through eight games. Thursday’s shutout came in a 33-10 win.

He’s fourth on the team in target share, behind Parker Washington, Brenton Strange and Jakobi Meyers. For a former first-round pick, that’s a problem.

Jones wrote that no one believes he’s long for Jacksonville. Jeremy Fowler says teams expect the Jags to move him eventually. Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport said Saturday that Jacksonville could wind up dealing him, and Tom Pelissero says several receivers are likely to move before the deadline.

Why He Might Stay

Staying is still the single most likely outcome. Just not by as much as last week.

Jacksonville is 6-2 and in the hunt. Fowler says the team prefers adding to subtracting and hasn’t signaled it wants to move him. Albert Breer reported Friday that the Jags are reluctant to sell, and his point is that BTJ’s speed opens things up underneath for Meyers and Washington even when he isn’t getting the ball. They’ve also rebuffed multiple inquiries already.

He’s cheap, too. He’s under contract next year, and the team doesn’t have to decide on his fifth-year option until May 2027. There’s no rush.

Last week we called Thursday night the wild card. He got ignored. Nothing has come out about him asking for a move, but that’s the thing to watch.

What Will It Cost?

Probably a Day 2 pick.

Jones said a Day 2 pick is the likely return. Yahoo’s Jori Epstein said the league expects something around a third-rounder. The closest comp is Marvin Harrison Jr., another 2024 first-rounder. Houston got him from Arizona for a 2027 second.

There’s one more angle. Jacksonville lost nose tackle DaVon Hamilton to a torn quad, and the Jags have reportedly been making calls for a defensive playmaker. BTJ could be the piece that brings back help on that side instead of a straight pick.

Kansas City Chiefs, +300

The Chiefs still have the most smoke.

Breer reported Friday that Kansas City is interested, and they’ve been calling around for receiver help for weeks. They need a No. 2 behind Rashee Rice, and a deep threat for Patrick Mahomes is an easy sell.

So why not the favorite? Mike Florio said the Jags aren’t inclined to send him to an AFC contender, and Jones’s rival executive expects the deal to go to a noncontender. And KC has fallback options. Calvin Ridley in Tennessee and Jerry Jeudy in Cleveland have both come up.

Los Angeles Rams, +400

This is the one we keep coming back to.

Jags GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen both came from the Rams. The relationship is already there.

So is the need. Davante Adams ruptured his hamstring and is out 6-10 weeks. BTJ next to Puka Nacua gives Matthew Stafford someone to throw deep to. ESPN’s Dan Graziano lists the Rams among the teams that need receiver help, and as an NFC team, they’re an easier partner for Jacksonville.

San Francisco 49ers, +600

Big mover. We had them at +900 last week.

Pelissero says the Niners are calling around for receivers, and the room’s a mess. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson and De’Zhaun Stribling have all been banged up. They already bought once with DeForest Buckner, so they’re clearly willing to deal.

There’s still less direct BTJ buzz here than with Kansas City or the Rams. That’s why we haven’t gone shorter.

Washington Commanders, +800

Terry McLaurin is done for the year, so Washington needs a lead receiver now.

Florio named the Commanders among the interested teams and pointed out that, as an NFC team, they’re an easier trade partner than the Chiefs or Steelers. They’re not on Graziano’s list of receiver-needy teams, though, which keeps us cautious.

Pittsburgh Steelers, +900

Pittsburgh is calling around, but BTJ still looks like Plan B.

Michael Pittman Jr. is hurt and the Steelers need a body. The reporting says Josh Downs is their main focus, though. If Downs lands somewhere else, this number shortens. And they’re an AFC contender, which runs into the same problem as KC.

The Rest of the Board

Graziano’s list also has the Patriots and Seahawks, and he says the Broncos and Giants could belong too. That’s the bulk of the +1000 field.

The Raiders are +2000. They’ve come up as a team that could use a receiver. That’s about it.

When Will We Know?

Tomorrow at 4 p.m. ET.

Jacksonville had the weekend off, so there’s no more tape to wait on. The next game is Nov. 15 at Tennessee. If a team shows up with a Day 2 pick, we think the Jags listen.

If nobody does, he’s still in Jacksonville on Wednesday and this gets pushed to the offseason.

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