Brian Thomas Jr. made a Pro Bowl as a rookie. Two years later, he’s the Jaguars’ fourth option in the passing game, and half the league is calling about him.
The trade deadline is Tuesday, November 10 at 4 p.m. ET. Teams around the league think Jacksonville eventually moves him. The Jaguars haven’t budged yet.
Kalshi has a market up, but it’s thin and it’s swung hard. The Rams were the favorite there last week. Now it’s the Chiefs. So we built our own board. If you want to see where real NFL lines are posted, check our best NFL betting sites and apps.
Brian Thomas Jr. Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stays with Jaguars | +110 | 47.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +350 | 22.2% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +400 | 20.0% |
| Washington Commanders | +600 | 14.3% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +800 | 11.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +900 | 10.0% |
| Field | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +2500 | 3.8% |
Odds are Mr. Gamble projections as of November 4, 2026, and aren’t available at sportsbooks.
Why Is BTJ on the Block?
The production fell off a cliff.
As a rookie in 2024, Thomas went for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year he has 10 catches for 117 yards and two scores through seven games. He hasn’t had three catches in a game since Week 2.
He’s fourth on the team in target share, behind Parker Washington, Brenton Strange and Jakobi Meyers. For a former first-round pick, that’s a problem.
He did catch a touchdown in Sunday’s blowout of the Colts. One play doesn’t fix the role, though.
Jeremy Fowler says several teams are confident Jacksonville will move him eventually. Adam Schefter says the Jags have warmed to a deal at the right price.
Why He Might Stay
This is a real coin flip, and staying is still the single most likely outcome.
Jacksonville is 5-2 and in the hunt. Fowler said the Jags are in adding mode, not subtracting. Albert Breer doesn’t expect a trade at all. His point is that BTJ’s speed opens things up underneath for everyone else, even when he isn’t getting the ball.
He’s also cheap. He’s under contract next year, and the team doesn’t have to decide on his fifth-year option until May 2027. There’s no rush.
The wild card is Thomas himself. If he gets ignored again Thursday night in Baltimore, he could push for a move the way Josh Downs did in Indy.
What Will It Cost?
Probably a Day 2 pick.
The Athletic’s Jonathan Jones said a Day 2 pick is the likely return. Yahoo’s Jori Epstein said the league expects something around a third-rounder.
The closest comp is Marvin Harrison Jr., another 2024 first-rounder. Houston got him from Arizona for a 2027 second.
One more angle: Jacksonville just lost nose tackle DaVon Hamilton to a torn quad. BTJ could be the piece that brings back defensive line help instead of a straight pick.
Kansas City Chiefs, +350
The Chiefs have the most smoke.
Mike Florio reported KC is interested, and they’ve been calling around for receiver help for weeks. They need a No. 2 behind Rashee Rice, and a deep threat for Patrick Mahomes is an easy sell.
So why not the favorite? Florio also said the Jags aren’t inclined to send him to an AFC contender. Nobody wants to see a guy they gave up on in a January game.
Los Angeles Rams, +400
This is the one we keep coming back to.
Jags GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen both came from the Rams. The relationship is already there.
The need is too. Davante Adams ruptured his hamstring and is out 6-10 weeks. BTJ next to Puka Nacua gives Matthew Stafford someone to throw deep to. And it’s an NFC team, which helps.
Washington Commanders, +600
Terry McLaurin is done for the year, so Washington needs a lead receiver now.
Florio named the Commanders among the interested teams and pointed out that, as an NFC team, they’re an easier trade partner for Jacksonville than the Chiefs or Steelers.
Pittsburgh Steelers, +800
Pittsburgh is in on him, but BTJ seems like Plan B.
Michael Pittman Jr. is hurt, and the Steelers need a body. The reporting says Josh Downs is their main focus, though. If Downs lands somewhere else, this number shortens.
They’re also an AFC contender, which runs into the same problem as KC.
San Francisco 49ers, +900
The Niners’ receiver room is a mess. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson and De’Zhaun Stribling have all been banged up.
They already bought once with DeForest Buckner, so they’re clearly willing to deal. There’s just less direct BTJ buzz here than with the teams above.
Las Vegas Raiders, +2500
The Raiders have come up as a team that could use a receiver. That’s about it. We’re keeping them long.
When Will We Know?
Thursday night is the tell.
Jacksonville plays at Baltimore, and the Ravens are starting undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano. Fowler said BTJ’s situation should get clearer after that game.
If he’s a non-factor again, expect the noise to pick up fast. If he goes off, the Jags probably keep him and dare everyone to wait until the offseason.
Either way, it’s settled by 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
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