We’re down to one winless team. And it didn’t even play this week.
Miami finally got in the win column, beating the Jets 28-25 in New Jersey. That leaves the Chargers as the only team in football without a win after sitting out on their bye.
The Titans almost made it two straight. Almost. Cleveland kicked a field goal as time expired to win 27-24 in Nashville, and Tennessee dropped to 1-6.
Kalshi’s playoff markets have the Chargers, Titans and Dolphins all at 3% or lower. So the top of this board got shuffled again.
Here’s where it stands heading into Week 8.
First Team Eliminated From Playoff Contention Odds
| Team | Record | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | +175 | 36.4% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-6 | +225 | 30.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-5 | +350 | 22.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-5 | +900 | 10.0% |
| Field | — | +1000 | 9.1% |
Odds are Mr. Gamble editorial odds, built off the latest sportsbook and Kalshi playoff prices as of Oct. 27. No sportsbook currently posts this market.
Los Angeles Chargers, +175
New favorite.
The Chargers sat at home this weekend and still moved to the top. That’s what happens when you’re the last team without a win.
They’re 0-6 and have lost nine straight going back to last December. Justin Herbert leads the league with eight interceptions.
Six losses ties them with Tennessee for the most in the AFC. But LA has played one fewer game, and the schedule coming out of the bye is ugly. The Rams, then Houston, then a trip to Baltimore.
The Rams just snapped a two-game skid with a 35-21 win in Vegas. Not a great time to see them.
Tennessee Titans, +225
This one had to hurt.
Tennessee jumped out 14-0 on Cleveland behind two early Tony Pollard touchdowns. He finished with 129 yards and three scores.
Then it slipped away. The Titans still tied it at 24 in the final minute, but the defense couldn’t get one more stop. Andre Szmyt hit a 32-yarder at the gun and the Browns walked off with it.
They look a lot more competitive than they did a month ago. Doesn’t matter much here. 1-6 is 1-6.
Next up is a trip to Cincinnati. The Bengals just dropped 35 second-half points on Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins, +350
Big drop for last week’s favorite.
Miami came out of its bye and held a lead for the first time all season. Malik Willis had his best game of the year, Ollie Gordon ran for 103 yards and rookie Caleb Douglas scored twice, including a 63-yard catch-and-run in the fourth.
They iced it with a tush push on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning. First win of the Jeff Hafley era.
The Dolphins also have one fewer loss than the two teams above them. That matters in this race.
The schedule doesn’t do them any favors though. New England comes to Miami this week, then Detroit.
Arizona Cardinals, +900
The SoFi magic didn’t travel home.
Denver came to Glendale and won 30-16. Bo Nix ran 62 yards for a touchdown on a scramble, and Jacoby Brissett got hit all afternoon.
Arizona is 2-5, and the brutal part of the schedule is just getting started. Dallas, Seattle, the Rams and Kansas City are next.
Two wins give them a little more cushion than the three teams above. Not much though.
The Field, +1000
Tampa Bay played its way off the board. Baker Mayfield came back from his thumb injury and the Bucs ran all over Carolina in a 43-13 blowout. At 2-5, the NFC South keeps them breathing.
New Orleans is also 2-5 after losing 16-10 to Pittsburgh in Paris. Owner Gayle Benson already called the team out earlier this month, and now the Saints head into their bye.
Then there’s Philly. The Eagles lost 38-21 to Dallas on Monday night, their fifth straight loss. Without Jalen Hurts, it’s hard to see where the wins come from.
The Colts (2-5) just fired GM Chris Ballard and could be sellers at the deadline. The Jets (2-5), Texans (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1) are in here too.
When Will We Know?
Not yet. A team isn’t eliminated until it can’t get in even by winning out, and that probably won’t happen until late November at the earliest.
Week 8 games to watch:
- Titans at Bengals: Lose and Tennessee is 1-7.
- Chargers at Rams: LA’s first game back from the bye.
- Patriots at Dolphins: Miami tries to stack wins.
- Cardinals at Cowboys: Dallas is coming off a 38-21 beatdown of the Eagles.
If the Chargers lose and the Titans do too, those two will be stuck at seven losses apiece heading into November.
Odds are for entertainment purposes and subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
