Well, that escalated fast. Maryland got smoked 54-3 by UCLA on Saturday — the kind of loss where fans are booing before the fourth quarter even starts — and now Mike Locksley’s name is getting thrown around right alongside Norvell and Belichick. He wasn’t even a name two weeks ago. Now he might be top three.
Everybody else moved this week too, just not all in the same direction. Shane Beamer had the other bad Saturday — South Carolina got run out of Bryant-Denny 49-18, third loss in a row. Meanwhile Luke Fickell did the opposite and picked up a real win, a road comeback at Penn State that should buy him some patience heading into October.
Next College Football Coach Fired Odds (Post-Week 4)
| Coach | Team | Week 4 Result | New Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Norvell | Florida State | W, 34-7 vs. Central Arkansas | +200 | 33.3% |
| Bill Belichick | North Carolina | Bye week | +450 | 18.2% |
| Mike Locksley | Maryland | L, 3-54 at UCLA | +600 | 14.3% |
| Shane Beamer | South Carolina | L, 18-49 at Alabama | +800 | 11.1% |
| Lance Leipold | Kansas | Bye week | +900 | 10.0% |
| Dave Aranda | Baylor | W, 23-13 vs. Colorado | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Bill O’Brien | Boston College | L, 14-21 vs. Virginia Tech | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Luke Fickell | Wisconsin | W, 24-20 at Penn State | +4000 | 2.4% |
Odds current as of early Week 5. Shop around before you bet any of this — books aren’t going to line up exactly the same.
Locksley’s in it now
54-3 isn’t a rough afternoon. That’s a total collapse, and it happened at home. Maryland’s lost two games before October for the first time since Locksley’s first year, and they’ve dropped 10 of their last 12 overall — which is a brutal stretch by any measure. A midseason firing would run Maryland close to $10 million, so nobody’s expecting a move this week or even this month. But that number shrinks every year he stays, and once the boos start showing up on broadcast, the clock tends to speed up.
Beamer’s seat just got a lot warmer
Three straight losses now, and the Alabama game wasn’t competitive past the first quarter. What makes this one sting is South Carolina looked genuinely good in August — nine wins last year, a roster with real NFL talent on it. That’s exactly why a stretch like this feels worse than it would somewhere else. Nobody’s calling for his job yet. Go 0-4 in conference play, though, and that conversation starts whether the school wants it to or not.
Norvell’s still on top, and it’s getting more real
Beating Central Arkansas 34-7 doesn’t tell you much — that’s just what a Florida State roster is supposed to do to a team like that. What’s actually moving here is the reporting. Multiple outlets this week are describing FSU’s administration as actively weighing whether to eat the buyout, not just quietly riding it out like before. That’s a real shift. A week ago this was speculation. Now it sounds like an actual conversation happening somewhere in Tallahassee.
Fickell had himself a week
This is the one coach who genuinely helped himself. Wisconsin went into Beaver Stadium as a road underdog and beat a ranked Penn State team in a back-and-forth game — the kind of win that changes how people talk about a coach, at least for a little while. He’s all the way out to +4000 now. Whether that sticks depends on how the rest of the Big Ten schedule treats him.
Everyone else
Aranda’s Big 12 opener against Colorado was a business trip — 23-13, nothing flashy, but a real conference win on the board. O’Brien’s Boston College dropped its ACC opener to Virginia Tech, closer than the Week 1 disaster at Cincinnati but still a loss in a stretch they needed to survive. Kansas and North Carolina both had the week off, so Leipold and Belichick sit right where they were, waiting on their next data point.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.