One week in and nobody’s been fired yet. Give it time.
The first week did shake up our board, though. The Cavs blew a 29-point lead on national TV. The defending champs are 0-3. And the Kings look exactly like the Kings.
Here’s where things stand now.
Next NBA Coach Fired Odds After Week 1
| Coach | Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Christie | Sacramento Kings | +200 | 33.3% |
| Kenny Atkinson | Cleveland Cavaliers | +500 | 16.7% |
| Brian Keefe | Washington Wizards | +600 | 14.3% |
| Nick Nurse | Philadelphia 76ers | +900 | 10.0% |
| Jordi Fernández | Brooklyn Nets | +900 | 10.0% |
| Darko Rajaković | Toronto Raptors | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Will Hardy | Utah Jazz | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Ime Udoka | Houston Rockets | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Tiago Splitter | Chicago Bulls | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Taylor Jenkins | Milwaukee Bucks | +2000 | 4.8% |
Odds via Mr. Gamble’s own handicapping as of Oct. 27, 2026. Not a sportsbook market.
Doug Christie, +200 (was +300)
The Kings are 0-3. The Clippers beat them by 25. Then Memphis came into Golden 1 Center on Sunday and won 123-112.
Christie owned it afterward. Good for him. It doesn’t change the math.
This is the last guaranteed year of his deal. LaVine, Sabonis and Murray are healthy again, and the Kings added Darius Acuff Jr. with the No. 7 pick. Last year’s injury excuse is gone.
They’re in San Antonio tonight. Not exactly where you go to snap a losing streak.
The only thing slowing this down is GM Scott Perry. He kept Christie six months ago, so firing him now makes Perry look bad too. That buys a few weeks. Probably not more.
Kenny Atkinson, +500 (was +700)
Opening night in Philly, Cleveland went up 29 in the second quarter and led by 24 at the half. They lost 114-106.
That’s the biggest blown lead since the league started tracking play-by-play in 1997-98. Teams with a 20-point halftime lead in a season opener had been 65-0 before this.
And it’s the second time in five months. Nobody in Cleveland has forgotten the 22-point fourth-quarter lead they blew in Game 1 against the Knicks.
The Cavs are 2-1, so the record’s fine. But that’s the kind of loss that sticks to a coach. One more like it and “we never discussed firing him” gets tested for real.
Brian Keefe, +600 (was +400)
We’re moving Keefe down. Washington is 2-2, which is fine for a team that won 17 games last year.
Anthony Davis dropped 34 and 12 in the opener against Milwaukee. Trae Young has been running the show. They won in Chicago too.
No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa hasn’t played yet because of an ankle issue from the preseason. Once he’s back, Keefe has his full roster and no more excuses. For now, .500 buys him time.
Nick Nurse, +900 (was +500)
What a week for Philly. They beat the champs at the Garden on opening night. Then they came back from 29 down against Cleveland. Then they beat Milwaukee.
Sunday was the first bad night. With Embiid resting his foot, Nurse started LeBron at center against Detroit. The Sixers lost 106-93, got crushed on the glass 54-37, and LeBron was a -22.
LeBron made it pretty clear after the game that playing the five isn’t a long-term thing. That’s worth watching. It’s not a crisis at 3-1.
Nurse slides to fourth for us. Hard to fire a guy with the comeback of the year on his resume.
Jordi Fernández, +900 (was +1200)
The Nets are 0-3, and this is the year they’re supposed to be trying to win.
Fernández has to keep the vets happy while developing Egor Demin and lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr. Neither young guard has looked great early. It’s his third season, and an 0-3 start doesn’t help the case.
The Rest of the Board
Darko Rajaković (+1200) has Toronto at 2-1, so he’s fine for now. Will Hardy sits at +1400.
Ime Udoka falls all the way to +1600. Houston is 4-0. Kind of hard to fire a guy who hasn’t lost.
Tiago Splitter and Taylor Jenkins are both +2000. Chicago and Milwaukee are each 1-3, but both coaches were hired this summer. Nobody’s firing a brand-new coach in November.
Now the fun ones. The Knicks are 0-3. Mike Brown just won a title. We’d put him at +5000, and that’s only because it’s New York.
Miami is 0-4 even with Giannis scoring like crazy. Erik Spoelstra isn’t going anywhere. He stays at +10000.
When Will We Know?
Probably not this week. Nash went on Nov. 1, 2022. Walton made it to late November in 2021. Brown lasted until Dec. 27, 2024.
The NBA Cup starts Friday, and group play wraps up Nov. 27. That’s usually when front offices look hard at the standings.
If the Kings are 2-12 by then, it’s tough to see Christie making it to Christmas.
Odds and implied probabilities reflect our own handicapping for informational and entertainment purposes only, not a licensed sportsbook market. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
