Next NFL QB Benched Odds 2026: (Updated 10/6/26)

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Next NFL QB Benched Odds

QuarterbackTeamOddsImplied Probability
Malik WillisMiami Dolphins+15040.0%
Jacoby BrissettArizona Cardinals+30025.0%
Kyler MurrayMinnesota Vikings+10009.1%
Tyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints+12007.7%
Deshaun WatsonCleveland Browns+15006.3%
Geno SmithNew York Jets+20004.8%
Michael Penix Jr.Atlanta Falcons+25003.8%
Bryce YoungCarolina Panthers+35002.8%
Kirk CousinsLas Vegas Raiders+40002.4%

Where Everybody Actually Stands

Deshaun Watson. Three straight game-winning drives now. He beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday night, going 24 of 33 for 268 yards with a touchdown and a pick, and Szmyt hit a 56-yard field goal at the end. Cleveland’s 3-1 and sitting on top of the AFC North. Nobody’s talking about the bench anymore.

Tua Tagovailoa. Same story as last week. He’s healthy and available, and he’s still stuck behind Penix as a backup. Atlanta isn’t going back, and Tua never even lost a start to end up here. He just lost the competition.

Michael Penix Jr. Two straight wins as the starter. Monday night he went 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown with no picks in a 45-24 rout of the Saints, right after the Packers blowout, and Atlanta’s 2-2 now. Cooper Rush, the guy who got pulled mid-game against Carolina back in Week 2, is a backup again and not part of this conversation.

Geno Smith. First bad one of the year. He went 8 of 15 for 119 yards and a touchdown in a loss to Chicago, the Jets were 0-for-7 on third down, and they ran just 32 plays all day. Geno said it himself: not his best game. One off day after a strong start isn’t a benching story, but New York’s 1-3.

Kirk Cousins. First loss of the year, 30-27 to Kansas City. He went 31 of 52 for 365 yards and two touchdowns, with one pick. Raiders are 3-1, and he did his part. Still nowhere near the hot seat.

Jacoby Brissett. This is the one that moved. He threw three interceptions in a 36-24 loss to the Giants, a career high, and the last one was a pick-six on the final play. Arizona’s lost three straight, it’s 1-3, and the offense ranks last in the league in yards per pass attempt. LaFleur got asked about switching to Gardner Minshew or rookie Carson Beck and just said “No.” I’d still watch this one closely.

Kyler Murray. 4-0, but it keeps being the defense doing the heavy lifting. He went 27 of 37 for 247 yards with no touchdown passes in a 15-10 win over Miami. He’s fine as long as Minnesota keeps winning, but that’s a big “as long as.”

Malik Willis. Still the favorite, and Week 4 didn’t help. He went 9 of 17 for 85 yards and lost a fumble in a 15-10 loss to Minnesota, and Miami’s 0-4. There’s no talk of a switch yet and the Dolphins host Cincinnati next, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Quinn Ewers gets a look soon.

Bryce Young. What a turnaround from Week 3. He went 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns in a 32-26 win over Detroit on Sunday night, even with two receivers out, and the crowd was chanting MVP. Carolina’s 2-2. Nobody’s benching this guy.

Tyler Shough. Rough Monday night. He went 30 of 48 for 286 yards and a touchdown, and the Saints got run off the field by Atlanta, 45-24. They’re 1-3, and the Falcons beat them up on the ground. Shough’s played fine most of the year, so this is more about the roster, but 1-3 makes people nervous.

So Where’s This Headed

Four weeks in, Malik Willis is still the guy I’d bet on, but Brissett’s turning it into a race. Arizona’s lost three straight and he just had the worst game of his season. Neither team is saying a change is coming, though 0-4 and 1-3 teams don’t wait around forever. Watson and Young flipped their stories completely, and Murray’s fine as long as Minnesota keeps winning ugly.

Don’t expect an announcement just yet. Last year the first two benchings didn’t happen until Week 4 and Week 5, so we’re right in that window. And keep an eye on Cam Ward in Tennessee. He’s not on this board, but the Titans are 0-4 and the questions about him keep getting louder.

Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.