Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: Updated After Week 4
| Coach | Team | Record | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bowles | Buccaneers | 0-4 | -150 | 60.0% |
| DeMeco Ryans | Texans | 0-4 | +150 | 40.0% |
| Jim Harbaugh | Chargers | 0-4 | +600 | 14.3% |
| Nick Sirianni | Eagles | 2-2 | +700 | 12.5% |
| Dan Quinn | Commanders | 1-3 | +700 | 12.5% |
| Matt LaFleur | Packers | 2-2 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | Cowboys | 2-2 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Dan Campbell | Lions | 2-2 | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Robert Saleh | Titans | 0-4 | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Shane Steichen | Colts | 2-2 | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Mike Vrabel | Patriots | 2-2 | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Aaron Glenn | Jets | 1-3 | +3300 | 2.9% |
Odds from BetOnline, Oct. 6.
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (-150)
Tampa is 0-4 and Bowles is the first name anyone says out loud.
Sunday’s 17-14 loss to Green Bay was close, and it still doesn’t help him. Baker Mayfield was out, a rookie QB started, and the offense never found a rhythm. You can argue the injury gives him cover. Ownership doesn’t always buy it.
At -150 he’s the only coach on the board the books think is more likely than not to go next.
DeMeco Ryans, Texans (+150)
This one is the shocker. Ryans was +800 a week ago. Now he’s the clear second choice.
Houston is also 0-4 after a 34-30 loss to Dallas where CeeDee Lamb torched the defense. That’s the side of the ball Ryans built his name on. When the defense is the problem, the head coach doesn’t get much of a hiding place.
Jim Harbaugh, Chargers (+600)
Los Angeles is 0-4 too, and Harbaugh’s price is nowhere near Bowles or Ryans. That tells you how much rope the books think he has.
The latest was a 30-23 loss to Seattle. Justin Herbert turned it over, and the injury list keeps growing. It’s hard to blame the coach for that part. A fifth straight loss would make it a different conversation.
Nick Sirianni, Eagles (+700)
Philly led 20-10 at halftime and lost. The offense went 0-for-12 on third down, and the fourth-and-goal call from the 2 is going to be replayed all week. Sirianni owned it afterward. “That’s on me,” he said.
The Eagles are 2-2, so this isn’t a panic. But a coach who gives away a game like that gets looked at differently.
Dan Quinn, Commanders (+700)
Washington is 1-3 after a 30-13 loss in London. Marcus Mariota got hurt, which put rookie Kaliakmanis in the game, and it showed.
Jayden Daniels might be back soon. If he is, Quinn gets a real shot to steady things. If not, the next few weeks get ugly.
Matt LaFleur, Packers (+1000)
LaFleur was +220 a week ago. Beating Tampa moved him to +1000, and he’s 2-2. That’s one of the bigger one-week swings on the board, and it shows how fast these numbers move.
Everyone else
Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys (+1200): Dallas is 2-2 and just beat Houston. That’s a better week than most of the board had.
Dan Campbell, Lions (+1400): Also 2-2. Hard to see Detroit pulling the trigger this early, but the price is what it is.
Robert Saleh, Titans (+2500): 0-4 and still priced like he’s safe. The books seem to think Tennessee is giving him a long runway.
Shane Steichen, Colts (+3300): He was +900 before the Colts won in London. One game took him from a real candidate to a long shot.
Mike Vrabel, Patriots (+3300): The Patriots beat Buffalo 29-26 and sit at 2-2. Boston is happy with him.
Aaron Glenn, Jets (+3300): The Jets are 1-3 after a 23-12 loss to Chicago where they went 0-for-7 on third down. He’s tied for the longest odds, but the Jets host Cleveland on Oct. 11, and Cleveland has won three straight.
What to watch in Week 5
The Giants visit Washington on Oct. 11, which is a big one for Quinn. The Jets host the Browns the same day. Denver goes to LA to face Harbaugh’s Chargers.
History says the wait isn’t long. Brian Callahan (Oct. 13, 2025), Robert Saleh (Oct. 8, 2024), Josh McDaniels (Oct. 31, 2023) and Matt Rhule (Oct. 10, 2022) all went in the same window. We’re a week or two away.
Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.