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Next NFL QB Benched Odds: Updated After Week 9
| Quarterback | Team | Record | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | Raiders | 4-5 | +200 | 33% |
| Deshaun Watson | Browns | 5-4 | +300 | 25% |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 1-7 | +600 | 14% |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 3-6 | +800 | 11% |
| Gardner Minshew | Cardinals | 3-6 | +1500 | 6% |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 2-7 | +2000 | 5% |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 3-5 | +2500 | 4% |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 3-5 | +3000 | 3% |
| Kyler Murray | Vikings | 6-2 | +5000 | 2% |
These odds are just my own guesses after Week 9, not real sportsbook lines. Every QB is his own market, so the percentages don’t have to add up to 100%.
Kirk Cousins, Raiders (+200)
Vegas got rolled 38-17 at San Francisco. Cousins threw three interceptions, and one went back for a pick-six right after halftime.
He did throw a touchdown to Bowers and ran one in himself. But the Raiders are 4-5, and the Mendoza talk is back.
Kubiak hasn’t said anything about changing quarterbacks. If the turnovers keep piling up, that could change fast.
Deshaun Watson, Browns (+300)
Watson’s in concussion protocol, so Shedeur Sanders got the start. The Browns lost 23-22 to the Saints in overtime and they’re 5-4.
Sanders threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. The coach wasn’t sure Watson would even be the backup if he cleared protocol.
Malik Willis, Dolphins (+600)
Miami lost 19-9 to Detroit and they’re 1-7. Willis threw for 174 yards with a pick and got sacked three times.
Nine points won’t cut it. Nobody’s mentioned a change yet, but with one win it can come up any time.
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (+800)
Atlanta lost 34-17 to Cincinnati and they’re 3-6. Penix was 20 of 31 for 162 yards, a touchdown and a pick.
Better than the four-pick game, but it’s still another loss. The pressure keeps building.
Gardner Minshew, Cardinals (+1500)
Arizona lost 17-3 at Seattle and the offense never found the end zone. Minshew only just took over from Brissett, so it wasn’t a great debut.
Rookie Carson Beck is the backup. The Cardinals are 3-6, so I wouldn’t call him safe, but he’s got a fresh start.
Geno Smith, Jets (+2000)
The Jets lost 35-12 at Kansas City and got sacked five times. They’re 2-7.
He played well the week before, so this one isn’t all on him. But at 2-7, a change always feels possible.
Tyler Shough, Saints (+2500)
The Saints beat Cleveland 23-22 in overtime and they’re 3-5. Shough was 21 of 35 for 265 yards with no picks, and his overtime touchdown put them ahead.
He got sacked five times, but a win helps a lot. He’s dropped way down the board.
Bryce Young, Panthers (+3000)
Carolina lost 26-21 to Denver and they’re 3-5. Young was 28 of 39 for 276 yards, three touchdowns and a pick.
He’s playing fine, so nobody’s talking about a change.
Kyler Murray, Vikings (+5000)
Murray sat out with a hamstring strain, and Carson Wentz started Monday night. Minnesota lost 23-6 to Buffalo and they’re 6-2.
They’re checking on him week to week. Once he’s healthy, this one’s easy.
So Where’s This Headed
Cousins is my pick now. Three picks in a blowout, a coach who won’t commit and a rookie waiting behind him. Watson’s right behind him since Sanders played well while he was out. Willis and Penix are still worth watching. Minshew just got the job, and Geno, Shough, Young and Murray look fine for now.
Winston’s out and now Brissett is too, so that’s two down. Cam Ward isn’t on the board, but the Titans are 1-7, so I’m keeping an eye on that one.
Odds are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.
