I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect the board to move this much after one week. A two-point road loss shortened the favorite’s odds. A 59-point beatdown got a coach bumped three spots by Monday morning. And the one guy on this list whose team actually won in Week 1 is somehow still sitting here in the top 10. Doesn’t seem fair, but that’s not really how this market works — it’s not grading wins and losses, it’s grading whether ownership’s patience is running out, and those aren’t the same thing.
2026 NFL Next Coach Fired Odds (Updated 9/15)
| Coach | Team | Week 1 Result | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Quinn | Washington Commanders | L 22-24 at Eagles | +150 | 40.0% |
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 27-33 at Bengals | +350 | 22.2% |
| Dave Canales | Carolina Panthers | L 37-59 vs. Bears | +600 | 14.3% |
| Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | W 23-10 at Titans | +700 | 12.5% |
| Shane Steichen | Indianapolis Colts | L 23-41 vs. Ravens | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Zac Taylor | Cincinnati Bengals | W 33-27 vs. Buccaneers | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Robert Saleh | Tennessee Titans | L 10-23 vs. Jets | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-22 vs. Commanders | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Mike Vrabel | New England Patriots | L 10-13 at Seahawks | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | Dallas Cowboys | L 20-28 at Giants | +2500 | 3.8% |
Go check your own book before you actually bet any of this. These numbers won’t sit still for long.
Dan Quinn (Commanders)
Here’s the thing about a two-point road loss to a good team — under different circumstances, nobody blinks. But Quinn’s circumstances aren’t different. His defense fell apart last year on the way to 5-12, and Sunday’s game came down to that same unit again. A close loss doesn’t erase that, it just confirms it for a lot of people watching. Preseason he was sitting at +300. One week later he’s at +150. That’s a rough way to get “rewarded” for a competitive game.
Dave Canales (Panthers)
I keep coming back to the score. Fifty-nine to thirty-seven. That’s the most points scored in any season opener in NFL history, and weirdly, it wasn’t Bryce Young’s fault — he threw for three touchdowns and looked like a guy who belongs. It was the other side of the ball that couldn’t get Caleb Williams or D’Andre Swift off the field all afternoon. Canales wasn’t really a name on this board a week ago. Now he’s third.
Aaron Glenn (Jets)
If you’re building a highlight reel for a coach on the hot seat, you don’t get a much better opener than this. Glenn’s Jets went into Tennessee and beat Robert Saleh — his own predecessor, fired from this exact job two years back — wire to wire, 23-10. His odds drifted out to +700 for it. Saleh’s odds did the opposite, tightening to +2000 after taking the loss.
Todd Bowles (Buccaneers) and Zac Taylor (Bengals)
Funny enough, these two played each other. Cincinnati won a shootout, 33-27. On its own that result doesn’t flip anything — Taylor’s still hunting for a playoff appearance he hasn’t found in three years, and Bowles is still stuck coaching a talented team that keeps plateauing. But a division-rival loss with this kind of scoreline is exactly the sort of thing that gets brought back up in October if Tampa’s still spinning its wheels.
Shane Steichen (Colts)
Nobody on this board had a worse Sunday than Steichen. Baltimore put 41 on his defense, at home. Daniel Jones is still working back from an Achilles tear, sure, that’s an actual excuse — but the betting market doesn’t really care about excuses, it cares about results, and Steichen’s résumé still doesn’t have a playoff appearance on it.
The Rest of the Board
Sirianni’s on this list even though Philadelphia won its opener, which tells you everything about how that fan base and front office grade a season — anything short of a title gets treated as a problem. Vrabel lost a tight one in Seattle, but nothing about that game says New England’s reconsidering anything, regardless of what got written about him this offseason. Schottenheimer’s Cowboys dropped their opener to the Giants, and that’s one more mark against a coach who’s barely into year two.
Don’t Expect a Firing This Early
Nobody’s losing their job in September, not really. The last four times this actually happened, it happened in October or later — Brian Callahan went on Oct. 13 of last year, Robert Saleh on Oct. 8 the year before that, Josh McDaniels on Oct. 31 in 2023, Matt Rhule on Oct. 10 in 2022. Once it starts, it usually keeps going too — the league’s averaged more than seven coaching changes a cycle since 2020. So take this list for what it is: a snapshot of one week, not a prediction of what’s coming. Check back in a month. It won’t look the same.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.