NFL Week 2 Prop Picks: Anytime Touchdown Scorers, Rushing, Receiving and Passing Yards to Target

Week 1 is officially in the books, and if you’re anything like me, you spent Monday night less worried about the score and more worried about which touchdown prop burned you by six inches of yardage. That’s the game. Props don’t care about your final score parlay — they live and die on one target, one carry, one broken tackle inside the ten.

Here’s how I’m attacking the board for Week 2, position by position, market by market. As always, shop these across a couple of books before you fire — the number you see first thing Monday is rarely the number sitting there by kickoff.

The Slate at a Glance

Buffalo opens its new stadium hosting Detroit on Thursday night, and the early total on that one is sitting around 53.5 — the highest number on the entire Week 2 board, which tells you everything about how sportsbooks expect this game to play out. On the other end, Cleveland at Tampa Bay is priced in the high 30s, with the Bucs as one of the bigger road-favorite-turned-home-favorite situations of the week.

San Francisco is laying somewhere in the neighborhood of two touchdowns at home against Miami, Baltimore is doing the same to New Orleans, and Philadelphia is a full touchdown-plus favorite in Nashville. Those three lopsided lines are where I start building my touchdown board, because nothing predicts goal-line work better than a team that’s supposed to be up two scores by the third quarter.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks

Christian McCaffrey (Dolphins at 49ers) — San Francisco is favored by double digits at home, and when the 49ers get into that kind of spot, McCaffrey is the one who closes drives out. He doesn’t need volume to get to the end zone; he needs the game script, and this game is built for exactly that.

Derrick Henry (Saints at Ravens) — Baltimore is one of the heaviest favorites on the board this week, and Henry has made a career out of grinding out short-yardage work once a game gets out of hand. I don’t love him as a value play at whatever price he’s sitting at, but as a game-script lock to build a same-game parlay around, he’s near the top of my list.

Bijan Robinson (Panthers at Falcons) — This is the closest line of the week, which usually means a competitive, back-and-forth game with plenty of red zone possessions on both sides. Robinson has been Atlanta’s clear lead option inside the ten, and a near-pick’em spread means neither team is likely to abandon the run.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions at Bills) — With that 53.5 total, I expect touchdowns from both sides of this one, and Gibbs is the engine of Detroit’s offense in exactly the way that shows up on the scoreboard. He’s my favorite touchdown play of the entire Thursday night slate.

James Cook (Lions at Bills) — Same logic, other sideline. Buffalo is favored at home in a game that’s supposed to be a track meet, and Cook has been the closer in that backfield since Josh Allen started spreading his own rushing touchdowns around more.

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals at Texans) — Houston is only a field-goal-ish favorite here, which means Cincinnati should be moving the ball enough to get Chase his usual red zone-looks. He’s a touchdown threat on any given target, not just the ones inside the twenty.

Rushing Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs, Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115) — I’m circling back to Gibbs here because the yardage number lines up with the touchdown logic. Detroit wants to keep this one balanced and control the clock against a Bills offense that can score in a hurry, and that means volume for Gibbs even if Buffalo builds an early cushion. My only hesitation is game flow — if Buffalo jumps out front fast, some of those carries could turn into checkdowns instead of true rush attempts. I still like the over here more than I don’t.

Bijan Robinson (Panthers at Falcons) — I won’t hand you an exact number since lines move fast on this one, but Robinson in a near pick’em game with Atlanta expected to lean on the run to control tempo is exactly the setup I look for on the rushing side. Check the yardage total before you bet the touchdown, because a workhorse week for Robinson likely means both markets hit together.

Derrick Henry (Saints at Ravens) — Big favorites, run-heavy identity, a Saints defense breaking in a lot of new pieces. This is about as clean a rushing yardage setup as you’ll find on the Week 2 board.

Receiving Yards

Ja’Marr Chase, Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110) — Chase against a Houston secondary that’s going to see plenty of volume thrown his way in a game that isn’t expected to be a blowout either direction. This is the kind of number I’m comfortable taking even at a short price, because Chase has cleared it in bunches over the past couple seasons regardless of who’s throwing him the ball.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions at Bills) — In a game projected to push past 53 points combined, I want shares of the guy who runs the most routes and catches the most footballs in Detroit’s offense. He’s going to see targets whether the Lions are up ten or down ten.

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins at 49ers) — Miami as a big road underdog usually means one thing for this offense: they abandon the run early and start chucking it downfield to try to keep pace. That’s not a great recipe for Miami covering the spread, but it’s a fine recipe for Hill racking up yardage in garbage time.

Passing Yards

Josh Allen (Lions at Bills) — Back to that Thursday night total one more time. A 53.5-point number in a home opener with a new stadium and a national audience tells me both quarterbacks are getting turned loose. Allen has the higher ceiling of the two given Buffalo’s game-script advantage as the favorite.

Patrick Mahomes (Colts at Chiefs) — Kansas City is favored by a touchdown at home on Sunday night, and Mahomes in prime time against an Indianapolis defense that’s still finding itself is a matchup I want exposure to, whether that’s the passing yardage market or a touchdown pass prop.

Jared Goff (Lions at Bills) — I’m not fading Goff just because Detroit is the underdog here. If Buffalo starts pulling away, Goff is the one who has to throw the Lions back into it, and that total says both teams are going to need their quarterback to be busy.

How I’m Using All This

My approach every week is the same: start with the game script the spread and total are telling you, then layer the touchdown and yardage props on top of that story instead of picking players in a vacuum. The three biggest favorites on the board — San Francisco, Baltimore and Philadelphia — are where I look first for touchdown chalk. The tightest lines, like Panthers-Falcons, are where I look for volume-based yardage plays because nobody’s pulling their starters early.

Lines move fast between now and Sunday, so treat the numbers above as a starting point, not gospel, and always check current pricing before you place anything. Good luck out there.

Odds and lines referenced above reflect market pricing as of early Week 2 and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.