Miami released him in February after a brutal left knee injury in Week 4 of last season. His agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said back on October 5 that a deal could come within days. October came and went. Nothing.
The Athletic had November as the most likely return target. He’s a free agent, so the trade deadline doesn’t apply and he can sign anytime. But the longer this goes, the more likely he just sits out 2026.
No sportsbook has a market up on this right now, so we built our own. Here’s how we’d price it.
Tyreek Hill Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No team in 2026 | +175 | 36.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +300 | 25.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +900 | 10.0% |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | 9.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1400 | 6.7% |
| New York Giants | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Field | +800 | 11.1% |
Odds are Mr. Gamble projections as of November 9, 2026, and aren’t available at sportsbooks.
Why Hasn’t He Signed Yet?
Mostly the knee.
Hill dislocated his left knee against the Jets in Week 4 last year and tore multiple ligaments, including his ACL. That meant multiple surgeries and time in Germany with specialists. In July he said he was running but had “no power in my left leg.”
Doctors reportedly wanted him to wait until at least October. Since then he’s posted about his conditioning, but nothing football-related, and no team has reported a workout. So nobody outside his camp has a good read on what’s left. He’s also 32.
No team in 2026, +175
Our favorite, and it’s not a lock.
Rosenhaus’s “within days” came and went. The October return target passed. Kalshi had “retires or stays in Miami” at 45% back in August, and that was before a whole month went by quietly.
We’re not calling it a retirement. Just no signing this year. He could still decide he wants to come back in 2027.
Kansas City Chiefs, +300
Still the favorite among actual teams. The reunion talk has been around all season.
Hill spent his first six seasons in Kansas City. The Chiefs contacted Rosenhaus about a reunion, and Hill posted “Hm” on X after Tyquan Thornton got hurt. Polymarket had Kansas City at 26% in early October, well ahead of everybody else.
But it’s cooled. Rashee Rice came off the injury report ahead of Week 8, and the Chiefs seem to be working the trade market for receiver help instead. One report this weekend said a Hill deal might never happen. That’s why they’re +300 and not +150.
Baltimore Ravens, +900
Baltimore and the Giants were the other two teams named in the October reports, behind Kansas City.
That’s about it. No workout, no visit, no sourcing beyond “mentioned.” We’d call the Ravens the better guess of the two.
Everybody else
Buffalo is +1000. On October 6 Hill posted, “I think I’m ready for some cold weather,” and Buffalo, Green Bay and Baltimore all got tossed around. He never named a team, though.
San Francisco is +1400. The Giants and Rams are both +1600. They show up on landing-spot lists, and that’s all they have going for them.
The Steelers aren’t on the board. A fan account claimed GM Omar Khan wanted Hill in for a workout and that Hill saw Pittsburgh as his best shot at a ring. No credible reporter has backed it up.
Everybody else, including Green Bay, New England, Minnesota and Las Vegas, is in the field at +800.
When Will We Know?
There’s no deadline for a free agent. That’s the problem for anyone trying to price this.
Hill can sign tomorrow, in December, or not at all. The first real sign will be a workout report, because nothing’s been reported yet. Until a team brings him in, “No team in 2026” stays on top.
Odds are for entertainment purposes only. Must be 21+ to gamble. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
