The NBA season tips off tonight, and the hot seat is already warm.
We built our own board for the first head coach fired this season. We based it on job security, front-office patience and how bad things could get by Thanksgiving. Expectations get coaches fired, but so does being cheap to fire.
Here’s how we see it heading into opening night.
Next NBA Coach Fired Odds 2026-27
| Coach | Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Christie | Sacramento Kings | +300 | 25.0% |
| Brian Keefe | Washington Wizards | +400 | 20.0% |
| Nick Nurse | Philadelphia 76ers | +500 | 16.7% |
| Kenny Atkinson | Cleveland Cavaliers | +700 | 12.5% |
| Ime Udoka | Houston Rockets | +800 | 11.1% |
| Darko Rajaković | Toronto Raptors | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Jordi Fernández | Brooklyn Nets | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Tuomas Iisalo | Memphis Grizzlies | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Will Hardy | Utah Jazz | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Charles Lee | Charlotte Hornets | +1600 | 5.9% |
Odds via Mr. Gamble’s own handicapping as of Oct. 20, 2026. Not a sportsbook market.
Doug Christie (Sacramento Kings), +300
Sacramento went 22-60 last season. That included a 16-game losing streak, the longest in franchise history.
Injuries to Sabonis, LaVine and Keegan Murray wrecked it early. That’s a real excuse, but it only buys you so much.
Christie is 49-84 as Kings coach. His deal has a team option for 2027-28, so he’s cheap to move on from. And a lot of early projections have Sacramento as the worst team in the league again.
This is also the Kings. They fired the first coach of the season in 2021-22 (Luke Walton) and again in 2024-25 (Mike Brown). Brown then won a title with the Knicks. Patience isn’t really their thing.
Brian Keefe (Washington Wizards), +400
Keefe is 43-160 since taking over in Washington. Last season the Wizards went 17-65, the worst record in the league.
That was the plan, though. The front office was collecting young guys and lottery balls, and GM Will Dawkins backed Keefe at the end of the year.
The plan changed. Washington traded for Trae Young and Anthony Davis and took AJ Dybantsa No. 1 overall. For the first time, Keefe has a roster that’s supposed to win games.
So the excuse is gone. If the Wizards look like the same team in December, the “player development guy” label stops protecting him.
Nick Nurse (Philadelphia 76ers), +500
Philly went 45-37 last year, came back from 3-1 down to beat Boston, then got swept by the Knicks.
Daryl Morey got fired after that. Nurse didn’t.
New president Mike Gansey then flipped the roster. He traded for Jaylen Brown in July and signed LeBron a few weeks later. Add Maxey, Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, and it’s a title team on paper.
The catch is that Gansey didn’t hire Nurse. Morey did. When a new boss builds a superteam, the inherited coach is the easiest guy to blame for a slow start.
So why isn’t he our favorite? Because nobody fires a coach two weeks into LeBron’s first season in town. If it happens, it’s more likely January than November. Christie and Keefe can get the call sooner.
The Sixers open tonight at the Garden, against the team that swept them.
Kenny Atkinson (Cleveland Cavaliers), +700
Atkinson won Coach of the Year in 2025 and is 116-48 in Cleveland. Last year the Cavs finally made the conference finals.
Then they got swept by the Knicks.
Game 1 was the killer. Cleveland blew a 22-point fourth-quarter lead while Atkinson sat on four timeouts. Down 3-0, he said the Cavs had won parts of the series “analytically.” That didn’t age well.
Koby Altman said firing him was never discussed. Fine. But this is a prove-it year, and a mediocre start would get loud in Cleveland fast.
Ime Udoka (Houston Rockets), +800
Udoka has won 52 games in back-to-back seasons. He’s also lost in the first round both times.
Last spring an injury-riddled Lakers team sent Houston home. Udoka admitted the Rockets “plateaued.” Of their 30 regular-season losses, 18 came after they led by double digits.
That’s a closing problem, and closing problems land on coaches.
Still, he’s one of the highest-paid coaches in the league. Houston isn’t eating that contract in November. This is more of an end-of-season story than a first-firing bet.
The Rest of the Board
Darko Rajaković (+1000) has been in Toronto long enough that the rebuild needs to start showing something. Jordi Fernández and Tuomas Iisalo (+1200) are both coaching teams that could slide early.
Will Hardy (+1400) is interesting. Utah went 22-60 last year too, same as the Kings. The Jazz just seem more willing to live with it.
Charles Lee (+1600) rounds out the top ten. After that, we’d put JJ Redick and Chris Finch around +2500. Finch is the Coach of the Year favorite on some boards, so that’s a long shot for a reason.
Sean Sweeney in Orlando and Taylor Jenkins in Milwaukee are brand new hires. You’d need something wild for either one to go first.
When Will We Know?
Usually not until a few weeks in. Steve Nash was out in Brooklyn on Nov. 1, 2022. Luke Walton lasted until late November in 2021. Mike Brown made it to Dec. 27, 2024, and Adrian Griffin got fired in January 2024 with a 30-13 record.
Don’t expect anything in Week 1. Watch the standings around Thanksgiving and the end of NBA Cup group play. That’s when front offices start doing math.
And the favorite doesn’t always cash. Last year’s first firing was Willie Green in New Orleans.
Odds and implied probabilities reflect our own handicapping for informational and entertainment purposes only, not a licensed sportsbook market. Gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
