Last week, three teams were winless. Now there are two.
The Titans finally got one, coming back to beat the Colts in Indy. The Cardinals pulled off the biggest upset of the season at SoFi. Meanwhile, the Chargers went to Kansas City and lost 22-6.
So the Chargers are 0-6. Miami is 0-5 after its bye. That’s the bottom of the league right now. Here’s the updated board.
First Team Eliminated From Playoff Contention Odds
| Team | Record | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | +140 | 41.7% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | +300 | 25.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-5 | +450 | 18.2% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-4 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-5 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Field | — | +1400 | 6.7% |
Odds are Mr. Gamble editorial odds, built off bet365’s “to make the playoffs” prices as of Oct. 20. No sportsbook currently posts this market.
Miami Dolphins, +140
Miami didn’t play this week and still got shorter.
That’s because everyone else around them won. And bet365 now has the Dolphins at +14000 to make the playoffs. Last week it was +9400.
Nobody else in the league is close to that number.
The offense is still the issue. Malik Willis has struggled all year, Achane is out, and Miami has the worst point differential in football.
The bye is over. From here on out, every week is a chance to pile up losses.
Los Angeles Chargers, +300
The Chargers are the only 0-6 team in the NFL. They’re the biggest mover on the board.
Kansas City held them to two field goals on Sunday. Justin Herbert threw another pick and now leads the league with eight. He’s thrown at least one in every game this season.
That’s nine straight losses going back to last year. The last time the Bolts started 0-6 was 2000, and Jim Harbaugh was their QB.
So why aren’t they the favorite? The bye.
LA is off this week, which gives Miami a chance to catch up. The Chargers’ playoff price is +4600 at bet365, still a lot shorter than Miami’s.
Tennessee Titans, +450
The Titans were down 13-0 at halftime in Indianapolis. Then the defense took over.
Three takeaways. Six sacks. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Tennessee won 26-20 and gave Robert Saleh his first win as head coach.
It doesn’t change a ton though. They’re 1-5 and still +4800 to make the playoffs.
Cleveland comes to Nashville this week. Lose that and they’re right back in the mix up top.
Arizona Cardinals, +800
Nobody saw this one coming.
Arizona was a 12.5-point dog in LA. Chad Ryland kicked six field goals, including a 43-yarder at the buzzer, and the Cardinals won 18-16.
Funny enough, both of Arizona’s wins have come at SoFi. First the Chargers, now the Rams.
The playoff price moved from +7800 to +3100. That’s a big jump for one game.
I still wouldn’t get too excited. The next stretch is Denver, at Dallas, at Seattle, the Rams again and then at Kansas City. That’s brutal.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +1200
The Bucs couldn’t stack wins. Pittsburgh came to Tampa and won 26-19, so they’re 1-5.
They’re getting a little closer to this list, but the NFC South still saves them. Carolina leads the division at 3-2, and the Bucs are +570 to make the playoffs. That’s a long way from the teams above them.
Carolina is next. That’s a big one for them.
The Field, +1400
New Orleans was on this board last week. They beat the Giants 34-27, and now the Saints are 2-4 and +400 to make it. Tough to see them getting eliminated first in that division.
The more interesting name in the Field right now is Philadelphia.
The Eagles have lost four straight. And Jalen Hurts is done for the regular season because of blood clots. They’re 2-4 and +500 to make the playoffs.
Philly probably won’t be the first one out. But that team has a long few months ahead.
Washington (1-4-1), the Jets (2-4) and the Colts (2-4) are all in here too.
When Will We Know?
Still a while. You don’t get eliminated until there’s no path left, even if you win out. Late November is the earliest we’d usually expect to see it.
Games to watch in Week 7:
- Browns at Titans: Tennessee can’t afford to go 1-6.
- Broncos at Cardinals: Arizona’s brutal stretch starts here.
- Bucs vs. Panthers: A loss puts Tampa further behind in the division.
Miami is back from its bye and the Chargers are off. If the Dolphins lose and the Titans do too, this board gets tight at the top.
Odds are for entertainment purposes and subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
