Two weeks in, and the coach-firing conversation has already moved past last week’s numbers. Washington fell to 0-2 and lost Jayden Daniels to a dislocated elbow. Tampa Bay dropped to 0-2 at home. The Chargers, a team most people weren’t even talking about a month ago, are 0-2 with arguably the ugliest schedule left in the league. Here’s where things stand.
Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds
| Coach | Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +450 | 18.2% |
| Shane Steichen | Indianapolis Colts | +475 | 17.4% |
| Dan Quinn | Washington Commanders | +525 | 16.0% |
| Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | +600 | 14.3% |
| Zac Taylor | Cincinnati Bengals | +850 | 10.5% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | Dallas Cowboys | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Dave Canales | Carolina Panthers | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia Eagles | +2200 | 4.3% |
These numbers are the last full board that’s circulated publicly and are built off Week 1 results — a fresh Week 2 repricing hasn’t posted yet from a source we’d trust enough to hand you as gospel. That’s exactly why the write-up below matters as much as the table: Quinn and Steichen’s cases got considerably stronger this weekend, while Taylor, Canales and Schottenheimer all had the kind of week that should push their numbers out, not in. Treat the table as the baseline and the analysis as the leading indicator of where it moves next.
Bowles, Still the Top Name
Tampa Bay is 0-2 after a 19-23 home loss to Cleveland, and the deeper numbers are worse than the record alone suggests. Since returning from last November’s bye, the Bucs are 2-9 with a minus-60 point differential. Mike Evans and Lavonte David, who used to anchor that locker room, are gone. Ownership has historically waited until Black Monday rather than firing in-season, but keep this pace up and the Week 10 bye starts to look like a real inflection point.
Quinn’s Case Just Got Much Stronger
Quinn already sat near the top of this board before the season started. Then Sunday happened. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow — the same elbow, for the second time in under a year — in a 37-20 loss at Dallas. Washington’s 0-2, Marcus Mariota is the starter with no real timetable for Daniels’ return, and general manager Adam Peters is under real pressure after last year’s seven-win collapse. The upcoming schedule (Seattle at home, then eventually Philadelphia and the Rams) makes a 1-5 start before the Week 7 bye a live possibility. If there’s one coach whose number should be shortening fastest right now, it’s Quinn.
Steichen’s Excuses Are Running Out
An overtime road loss at Kansas City reads fine on paper. It isn’t, not for a coach in his fourth year who’s never made the playoffs. Indianapolis hasn’t had a winning season under Steichen since 2023, and dating back to last year’s Week 11 bye, the Colts are 0-9 with a minus-82 point differential. GM Chris Ballard is in a contract year of his own, which usually buys the staff patience through this season — but that’s a long way from real job security.
Glenn Has an Actual Case for the Opposite Direction
New York pushed Green Bay to overtime before losing in Week 2, a game that would’ve been the franchise’s first 2-0 start in a decade with one different bounce. The defense looks genuinely improved from a season ago, and Glenn’s reportedly well-liked in the building. What’s keeping him on this list is shaky in-game clock management and a rocky relationship with New York media — but he’s trending the right way.
Taylor, Canales and Schottenheimer Cool Off
All three of these coaches caught a real break in Week 2, which is exactly why their spots on that table above look due for a move outward. Taylor’s Bengals shut out Houston 20-6 to move to 2-0, the best result of anyone in this tier. Canales’ Panthers bounced back from that ugly 59-37 loss to Chicago with a 34-3 blowout of Atlanta — about as strong a response as a coach under pressure could ask for. Schottenheimer’s Cowboys beat Washington 37-20, which buys him breathing room in Dallas regardless of what’s happening with Quinn on the other sideline.
A New Name Not Yet on the Board: Jim Harbaugh
Nobody had this name on a hot-seat list a month ago, and it’s not on the table above either. The Chargers are 0-2 — an opening loss to Arizona, then a home loss to Las Vegas — and their next stretch (Buffalo, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston) offers no relief. Harbaugh’s .665 career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with 100-plus games, which usually makes this conversation sound premature. Worth remembering, though: Sean McDermott had a .662 winning percentage in Buffalo right before he was let go.
Bottom Line
Bowles and Quinn are carrying the most real weight right now, Steichen isn’t far behind, and Harbaugh has gone from off the radar to a legitimate name in the span of one bad stretch. Taylor, Canales and Schottenheimer, on the other hand, just earned themselves some slack. Expect the table above to catch up with all of this over the next few days — check back once it does.
Odds and implied probabilities are for informational purposes only. Confirm current lines with a licensed sportsbook before betting, and gamble responsibly.